The new WSJ/NBC poll is small — just 230 likely GOP voters — with a margin of error of 6 percent. So take the news with a grain of salt, but this poll shows Trump slumping to 21 percent and Carson surging to 20 percent, putting them in a national statistical dead heat.

Fiorina and Rubio are tied for third with 11 percent each. Kasich has bumped up to 6 percent and Bush has slipped down to 7 percent.

Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at American Principles in Action.