The toplines of the final Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom are moderately informative: Trump on 48 percent, Haley on 20 percent, and DeSantis on 16 percent. But the data is even more interesting when you look under the hood.

In December, 49 percent said their minds were made up. Forty-six percent were yet to be convinced. In December, 30 percent of Trump backers said their minds could be changed, while 70 percent of DeSantis supporters and 65 percent of Haley supporters said the same.

Flash forward one month and just 18 percent of Trump backers say they can be persuaded by someone else, while DeSantis and Haley still may bleed 35 and 37 percent of their vote share, respectively.

That’s over a third for both the second and third-place candidates. And that’s a lot.

Now look at the voter enthusiasm for each candidate. A full 88 percent of Trump’s caucus-goers describe themselves as “extremely” or “somewhat” enthusiastic about their candidate. For DeSantis, this sinks to 62 percent, and for Haley, it is an embarrassingly low 39.

In fact, Haley’s enthusiasm stats have dropped 20 points in the last month, likely due to her poor elocution on the campaign trail, her middling debate performances, and the fresh Trump attack ads against her.

These are the numbers that matter heading into Monday, especially in the middle of some atrocious-looking weather, and the last-minute dirty tricks. Reports suggest Trump voters specifically have been targeted with phone calls warning them to avoid going out in the snow to caucus. It’s a good thing that despite their average age being slightly higher than the rest; they’re the least likely to be deterred. At least so they say!