GET THE APP
Saturday, April 19, 2025
May 30, 2024
Jack Montgomery
Analysis
World

MONTGOMERY: Europe Heads Towards a New Populist Dawn.

Elections to the European Parliament are being held across the 27-member European Union (EU) next month, with national conservative and populist parties poised to earn more representation than ever before.

The European Parliament is not a true legislature, with the European Council, comprised of national government leaders, and the unelected European Commission, which acts as the bloc’s executive and as the main initiator of EU-level law, being significantly more powerful. However, its powers have increased over the years. For example, it must be consulted on the EU budget, EU treaty ratification, and the instatement of the Commission.

More importantly, it provides a platform — and a source of income and resources — for populist-leaning figures often shut out of national politics, allowing them to build up their movements into more credible forces. Nigel Farage is the most obvious example of this, with his party building the Brexit movement out of its European Parliament delegation despite being unable to secure meaningful representation in Britain’s national legislature.

Farage and his colleagues exited the assembly following Brexit, but a new wave of eurosceptic, anti-mass migration populists are now poised to enter, disrupting an apparatus currently dominated by the left and a scarcely distinguishable “center-right.”

FRANCE.

The National Rally (RN) party led by Marine Le Pen is by far and away the leading party in French polling, enjoying around 31 percent support to just 16 percent for President Emmanuel Macron’s party. The Reconquest party (REC) of Eric Zemmour, a relatively new party arguably to the right of National Rally, supported by Le Pen’s glamorous niece Marion Marechal, enjoys another eight percent support, meaning the so-called populist right will likely make up at least a plurality of France’s European Parliament delegation.

GERMANY.

Germany also looks set to send more national populists to the European Parliament than ever before. The anti-mass migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is flirting with the idea of an EU exit, is currently polling at the same level or even ahead of the governing Social Democrats, as well as the far-left Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats, who are the junior partners in the country’s governing coalition.

The AfD is consistently second only to the Christian Democrats, formerly led by Angela Merkel. The Christian Democrats are a notionally right-wing party but have historically governed largely from the left, much like Britain’s Conservatives. However, the AfD’s success has dragged them somewhat to the right.

SPAIN AND PORTUGAL.

Spain’s populist Vox party, which has grown rapidly over only a few election cycles, may roughly double its vote share in June, placing third overall. The more establishment-right People’s Party is also set to significantly increase its vote share and leapfrog the governing Socialists—and the People’s Party has demonstrated a willingness to work with Vox at the national level.

The European elections may also set the stage for a populist breakthrough in Portugal, with the Chega party (CH) going from zero representation to winning nearly a fifth of the vote and placing third overall.

THE NETHERLANDS.

In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV), which has just reshaped Western European politics by forming a national government, is set to increase its vote share, either beating or tying the Greens and Socialists to place first.

VISEGRAD PLUS. 

The Visegrad Group of Central European countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, is exceptional in European politics as national conservatives and populists have often broken through to win control of national governments.

In Hungary, the most solidly national conservative country in the EU — much to the bloc’s chagrin — Viktor Orban’s party, Fidesz, is set to remain the biggest winner in the European elections, despite concerted efforts to undermine it as it governs nationally for a fourth consecutive term.

In Slovakia, Prime Minister Robert Fico’s party, Smer, is not quite the leading party but does look set to increase its vote share. The polls may change significantly now following Fico’s attempted assassination.

In Czechia, the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) party of former prime minister Andrej Babis is set to place first with an increased vote share.

In Poland, the national conservative Law and Justice party, recently ousted from the national government by a coalition of globalist parties, is set to place first, albeit with a reduced vote share. The right-populist Konfederacja (Confederation) party is set to increase its representation.

Austria is not a member of the Visegrad but has aligned with the grouping on occasions when Austria’s populist Freedom Party (FPO) has been in the ascendant. This appears to be the case at present, with the Herbert Kickl-led party set to place first, seemingly at the expense of the establishment right Austrian People’s Party — which will likely be dragged further right as a result.

Another key development in the Visegrad is that parties like Orban’s, which previously aligned with Germany’s CDU in the European Parliament, are now aligning more strongly with dissident parties such as France’s National Rally, which will increase populists’ institutional power overall.

THE REST. 

Polls in the European Union’s remaining member-states will appear less dramatic to outsiders, with the only notable development being a strong increase in support for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. This notionally populist leader has proved disappointing in office, however, tending to focus on Ukraine aid and pleasing Joe Biden and other globalist leaders rather than delivering on her immigration promises. Her increase in support also looks set to coincide with a fall in support for fellow populist Matteo Salvini’s Lega (League).

Overall, however, the populist breakthroughs in Western European countries such as France, Germany, and Spain, in particular, are worrying establishment politicians and their media cheerleaders. Bloomberg published an article titled “2024 Is the Year of Elections, and That’s a Threat to Democracy,” lamenting European populists’ expected successes almost as much as the potential return of Donald Trump.

By Popular Demand.
The National Pulse Now has an on-site comments section for members. Sign up today and be part of the conversation in our community of almost 15,000.