Which political party controls the White House and the immense power of the executive branch isn’t the only contest set to be decided during the 2024 election in just over 20 days. Control of Congress will also be decided, with the entire U.S. House of Representatives and one-third of the U.S. Senate up for grabs.
The 2024 election cycle provides the Republican Party with the best opportunity to take and hold the Senate for the next several years, with far more Democrat-controlled seats up for election than Republican-controlled ones.
The National Pulse has compiled a breakdown of the key Senate races, including candidate backgrounds, polling dynamics, and other essential details. Current national polling trends suggest that Republicans will likely win the Senate by a narrow margin. They currently sit as the minority in the upper chamber with a two-seat deficit. It appears Republicans are on pace for anywhere between 51 and 56 seats in the upper legislative chamber.
WEST VIRGINIA: JIM JUSTICE V. GLENN ELLIOTT.
There is one Senate seat that is all but certain to flip from Democrat to Republican, and that is the one held by retiring Democrat-turned-Independent Senator Joe Manchin. While Manchin switched from Democrat to Independent in May of this year, he still caucuses with his former party—allowing Democrats to maintain their majority.
Manchin, however, has declined to run for re-election, leaving the Senate seat open in the former blue state, which has taken a decidedly red turn since the 2012 election. Instead, popular Governor Jim Justice (R-WV)—who himself switched parties from Democrat to Republican and endorsed President Donald J. Trump—will face Democratic Party candidate Glenn Elliott. The latter is the mayor of Wheeling, West Virginia—a rust belt industrial town nestled in the state’s northern panhandle between Ohio and Pennsylvania.
While there has been scant polling of the contest between Justice and Elliott, the few surveys that have been conducted all have the Republican populist governor winning upwards of two-thirds of the vote.
The Pulse Predicts: Jim Justice wins.
OHIO: SHERROD BROWN V. BERNIE MORENO.
Another potential Senate pick-up for Republicans is the seat currently held by Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH). First elected to the Senate during the 2006 election, Brown has become known as a political survivor, having staved off several attempts by Republicans to knock him out of the seat in increasingly reliably Republican Ohio.
In the past, Brown has been able to hold off his Republican challengers by keeping the vote margins in eastern Ohio relatively close. However, in 2016 and 2020, President Donald J. Trump’s candidacy fueled a massive shift among voters in the region toward the Republican Party. With Trump at the top of the ticket in the 2024 cycle, Brown’s challenger, Bernie Moreno, should benefit from the former Republican President’s coattails.
Moreno—a car dealer who has positioned himself as an America First populist—has narrowly trailed Brown in most polling by two to four points. However, Brown has also struggled to poll above 50 percent in the state, and it should be noted that Moreno dramatically overperformed the polling in the Republican primary earlier this year.
Most primary surveys showed a close race between Moreno, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and Republican-establishment State Senator Matt Dolan. However, Moreno dominated on election day, capturing over 50 percent of the primary vote and winning every county in the state.
The Pulse Predicts: Moreno wins, but it will be very close.
MONTANA: JON TESTER V. TIM SHEEHY.
Another likely pick-up for Republicans is the Montana Senate race. Incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) has held the seat since the 2006 election, relying on his image as a farmer and political moderate to hold off several Republican challengers since. However, like Ohio, Montana has continued to move further to the right in recent years. With Trump at the top of the ticket, the America First leader’s coattails should be enough to drag the Republican candidate, Tim Sheehy, across the finish line.
Sheehy, a former Navy Seal and entrepreneur with an ariel firefighting business, won a relatively uncontested Republican primary after Congressman Matt Rosendale (R-MT) withdrew from the race. Polling has shown Sheehy consistently ahead of Tester, with almost every major election forecast rating the race as either tilt or lean Republican. Surveys of the race show Sheehy leads Tester by around seven points.
The Pulse Predicts: Sheehy takes it.
ARIZONA: KARI LAKE V. RUBEN GALLEGO.
The U.S. Senate race in Arizona is one of the more hard-to-read contests of the 2024 cycle. Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, a popular news anchor and close ally of Trump, is facing Representative Ruben Gallego—a progressive House Democrat whose father is a career criminal and drug trafficker. Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is declining to seek re-election after leaving the Democratic Party earlier this year.
While polling the race has shown Gallego with a consistent lead over Lake, the inverse has been true for the presidential race. Trump has led both Joe Biden and, subsequently, Kamala Harris by several points in most surveys.
The former Republican President’s coattails will be critical for Lake in this race. Polling aggregates have had Gallego in the lead over Lake by between six and seven points. However, with Trump leading Harris, and seeing surging support among male Latino voters, there is an increasing chance that Lake will overperform the polls—benefiting from Trump pulling away in the presidential race.
Gallego is more vulnerable than the data suggests, especially as voters increasingly express frustration with the Bidne-Harris government’s open borders policies—which he strongly supports.
Editor’s Note: Kari crushed it in their televised debate. But how many Arizonans watched?
MICHIGAN: ELISSA SLOTKIN V. MIKE ROGERS.
One of the quieter Senate races that has moved from the backburner to the forefront of the 2024 election is in Michigan. Another open Senate seat, Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), is facing off against former Congressman Mike Rogers (R-MI).
Slotkin has raised alarm bells in recent weeks regarding both her and Harris’s position in internal polling of Michigan. She’s warned that Democrats are bleeding support—especially among black men and Muslims—in the state to Trump. Election forecasters have increasingly rated the race as a toss-up as polling has quickly narrowed. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregate has Slotkin leading Rogers by less than two points—meaning the race is essentially a statistical tie for the moment.
The Michigan Senate election is another contest in which President Trump’s coattails could prove to be a deciding factor. Currently, Trump leads Harris in the RCP average by just 0.9 points. If the former Republican President can overperform and increase his edge in the state, it could pull Rogers ahead of Slotkin as well—securing another pick up for Republicans.
The Pulse Predicts: Slotkin by a hair.
PENNSYLVANIA: BOB CASEY JR. V. DAVE MCCORMICK.
The 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race is likely to be a heartbreaker. Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA) is a popular incumbent who has developed—undeservedly—a public image as a political moderate. Casey’s Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, has run a nearly flawless campaign and produced some of the most hard-hitting attack ads of any candidate this election cycle.
McCormick has tried to closely tie himself to Trump, hoping the coattails effect will be enough to close the gap between him and Casey. Unfortunately, in rural and industrial Pennsylvania counties, there will likely be a degree of vote-splitting as many blue-collar voters remain skeptical of McCormick, who is the CEO of a major hedge fund and is accused of outsourcing and liquidating American jobs.
While Sen. Casey has failed to crack 50 percent of the vote in most polling aggregates, he has consistently led McCormick by around three to four points. Despite political headwinds, there is still a chance Trump’s coattails can pull McCormick across the finish line on election night.
The Pulse Predicts: Too close to call.
WISCONSIN: TAMMY BALDWIN V. ERIC HOVDE.
Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), the first openly gay member of the upper legislative chamber, is facing off against Republican challenger Eric Hovde. While this race looked as though it was a lock for Baldwin earlier in the summer, it has begun to tighten quickly as the November election looms.
Interestingly, the last Republican to hold this seat was Sen. Joseph McCarthy in 1952. Hovde, a successful businessman who has put an estimated $13 million of his own money into the race, appears to be benefiting from Trump’s coattails in the Badger state. Despite holding a several-point lead in Wisconsin just months ago, the 2024 Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, Kamala Harris, has seen her advance evaporate. Currently, she and Trump are in a statistical tie according to the RCP average.
According to the polling aggregates, Baldwin leads Hovde by between three and four points—though it is important to note that this follows a collapse in support for Baldwin, who held a larger lead over the summer. Several election forecasters have recently moved the race to a toss-up.
The Pulse Predicts: Too close to call.
NEVADA: JACKIE ROSEN V. SAM BROWN.
The Nevada Senate race features Senator Jackie Rosen (D-NV) facing off against wounded war hero Sam Brown. In 2008, Brown’s unit was hit by an improvised explosive device as they rushed to the aid of another group of soldiers who had been ambushed by Taliban militants. As a result, around 30 percent of Brown’s body suffered burns and required a lengthy and painful recovery.
Despite a strong personal story, Brown has run one of the less-than-defined campaigns of the cycle—with some observers noting he is more of a Republican-establishment ally than an America First proponent. While President Trump’s campaign is running neck-and-neck with Harris in the state, believing they can even flip Nevada, Brown has consistently trailed Rosen by between eight and ten points, according to polling aggregates. Election forecasters believe the seat is either lean or likely Democrat.
The Pulse Predicts: Rosen wins.
TEXAS: TED CRUZ V. COLIN ALLRED.
Yes, the Texas Senate race is concerningly competitive. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is facing off against Representative Colin Allred (D-TX) in what may prove to be the Republican incumbent’s strongest challenge yet. Allred has tacked hard to the middle politically despite having a more progressive voting record in Congress. Meanwhile, Cruz is running a more complete campaign than in previous cycles—though it has not been enough to put away his Democratic challenger.
The dynamics of the Texas Senate race are complex, to say the least. Cruz suffers from high unfavorable ratings, and Republican infighting in the state has left the party fractured. While most election forecasters rate the seat as lean Republican for the moment, several internal polls from Republican congressional campaigns in critical districts indicate Cruz is significantly running behind Trump in the state. If this data bears out, it could signal that the Republican Senator is in far more trouble than presumed.
Cruz’s political operation is closely associated with Republican strategist Jeff Roe. The latter most recently ran Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) disorganized and disastrous Republican presidential primary campaign, which saw him drop out in January of this year after failing to win a single county in Iowa.
The Pulse Predicts: Cruz clings on.
NEBRASKA: DEB FISCHER V. DAN OSBORN.
The final competitive Senate race pits incumbent Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) against an independent challenger, Dan Osborn. A left-leaning populist and union leader, Osborn has seen a meteoric rise in the polls, with several now showing him with a concerning lead over the Republican incumbent.
On the campaign trail, Osborn has found success combining a libertarian approach to social issues like abortion and marijuana legalization with pro-labor stances like raising the minimum wage and strengthening workers’ rights to organize a union. Additionally, he has stressed the need to secure the U.S. border and says he wants to cut taxes on overtime.
Meanwhile, it appears Fischer has struggled to shake the perception that she is an establishment Republican who is closely allied to anti-Trump elements like the Koch Network. The National Pulse previously reported that Fischer’s polling weakness against Osborn has prompted the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) to step in with over half a million dollars in ads just a month before the election.
Despite the recent positive polling for Osborn, most election forecasters still rate the race as lean or likely Republican.
The Pulse Predicts: Too close to call!
