Polling in traditionally non-competitive states can tell us a lot about the overall shape of a presidential race, as well as voter sentiment. In 2016 and 2020, Trump lost New York by between 22 and 23 points. That represented an improvement over Mitt Romney’s 28-point loss in 2012. But when one looks at the increasingly miserable public outcomes in New York City and State, the radicalization of the left, and progressives’ driving role in the direction the New York Democrats take, one can see how Lee Zeldin got within single digits during his 2022 gubernatorial run, and why Donald Trump is within 10 points of Joe Biden in the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
It wouldn’t surprise us if Trump got within single digits this time around, especially in a state where he spent most of his life, from his birth and childhood in Queens to his achievements in business and media.
Trump’s ‘Never Surrender‘ spirit is old New York. Something that has flickered and faded with recent generations. But while a liberal tradition may dominate much of the state, we also have practical, common-sensibilities.
New Yorkers are now facing the consequences of the sanctuary state grandstanding of our political class. As long as Biden is in the White House, it doesn’t change. The economy will not magically improve, nor will the border, nor will America’s future prospects – as Democrats continue to empower and enable the most heinous and perverse indoctrinators, raising the next generation of sick freaks who somehow support both Hamas and transgenderism.
While it would take a landslide not seen in modern times to produce a result that flipped New York’s 28 electoral votes, if the state is within single digits as the four-way polling shows, or even 10 points as the two-way race shows, it could certainly add to a popular vote victory by our nation’s 45th (and 47th) president. Even California state polls show a similar movement that, in tandem with a more significant margin in Florida and Texas, will deliver a popular vote victory in addition to the Electoral College mandate.
Even if Congressional candidates underperform in Trump-Republican states like Iowa, Ohio, and Florida, a second Trump administration would most certainly combine a Republican-held Senate with an increase in House seats from the very same state that was instrumental in delivering the decisive margins in the midterms – New York.
The state party apparatus in New York must realize that Trump’s populist Republican brand plays better in the state than the old Westchester Country Club-style. That was Romney’s brand. And it bottomed out in 2012 with a nearly 30-point loss.
New York is trending Republican and has been trending Republican for over half a decade now. Time will tell how much further it can go. But one thing is now inevitable: even in the heart of the establishment, the populist-conservative project is breaking through. If New York is within ten, how close could New Jersey and Virginia get? New Hampshire and Maine? Minnesota and New Mexico?
Donald Trump has delivered everything the Republican Party autopsy from 2012 asked for, and more. Above all, he’s delivered hope for the future that mobilizes grassroots and patriotic American citizens in ways no other modern Republican candidate has.
Troy Olson is an Army Veteran, a lawyer by training, and the co-author of the forthcoming book ‘The Emerging Populist Majority.’ He lives in New York City with his wife and son.
Gavin M. Wax is a New York-based conservative political activist, commentator, columnist, operative, and strategist. He is the Executive Director of the National Constitutional Law Union. He also serves as the 76th President of the New York Young Republican Club and as an Ambassador for both Turning Point USA & Live Action. He is co-authoring an upcoming book entitled ‘The Emerging Populist Majority.’ You can follow him on Twitter at @GavinWax
