Everyone got it wrong… well, almost everyone. Frank Cannon, president of American Principles Project, and a respected conservative political strategist with more than 30 years of experience, got it right consistently throughout the 2016 election cycle:
- Taking Trump Seriously (03-13-15)
- Jeb Bush Is Not A Convincing Frontrunner (04-16-15)
- Ted Cruz Will Be A Serious Contender (04-24-15)
- Bush Is In Trouble, Not Trump (09-23-15)
- Trump Is Not Down Double Digits (08-15-16)
- Trump Puts New States In Play (09-16-16)
And check out this nugget from Frank’s most recent piece in Townhall, “Trump’s Path to 270 Is Easier Than You Think,” which was published two weeks ago:
But what if we challenge some assumptions? Imagine that these polling turnout models are oversampling Democrats by a couple percentage points, overestimating turnout for Hillary Clinton and plugging in numbers that would even exceed President Obama’s historic turnout in 2008 and 2012 — and when you investigate the cross-tabs on some of these polls, you absolutely see evidence of this taking place. What if the polls are getting it wrong, even slightly?
And what if there is a true Bradley Effect taking place with Donald Trump that is impacting polling results, i.e. a statistically significant number of Trump voters who are afraid to publicly announce, even to an anonymous pollster over the phone, that they are Trump voters in fear of social backlash, especially following the aggressive attempts by the radical left to intimidate and silence Trump voters by using charged language and even by threatening violence? Are we really sure this is an impossibility? These factors combined could be worth two to four percentage points. Maybe more…
While he may not have picked the Chicago Cubs to win the World Series, Frank was certainly right on the money when it came to this election.
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Jon Schweppe is the Communications Director for American Principles Project. Follow him on Twitter @JonSchweppe.