More GOP voters believe Trump will be the nominee, even though they say they would prefer Ben Carson. Bush, declining 4 points to 9 percent, is in third place. Huckabee and Walker are tied at 5 percent, continuing the Walker slump. (In August, 14 percent of GOP voters thought Walker would be the nominee. That number is down to 1 percent).
32 percent of white Evangelicals back Trump, but 28 percent now support Carson.
Maggie Gallagher is a senior fellow at American Principles in Action.