A U.S. think tank claims Russia suffered significant troop losses during its 2024 territorial advances in Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), geolocated evidence suggests Russian advancements totaling 4,168 square kilometers, roughly equivalent to 1,609 square miles. The organization estimates that Russia lost approximately 40 soldiers per square mile gained.
The estimate aligns with data from the Ukrainian military’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, who reported 427,000 Russian casualties for the year, encompassing both deaths and injuries.
Despite Russia’s territorial gains, progress has been slow compared to past Ukrainian offensives—such as the surprise attack on the Kursk region in August. Although Russia has reclaimed much of the territory Ukraine captured in the summer offensive, a significant strategic breakthrough remains elusive. The ISW noted that over half of Russia’s territorial gains last year occurred between September and November.
The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence, referring to Ukrainian estimates, reported that November was exceptionally costly in terms of Russian casualties, with 45,680 over the month—averaging roughly 1,523 daily. “The Russians have been, I think, at the expense of high casualties and exhaustion, continuing with a very high tempo of operations, which haven’t ceased,” ISW analyst George Barros said in a recent interview, adding that the country has undertaken more aggressive operations in Ukraine since 2023.
Russia’s recruitment efforts have been intense. Former President Dmitry Medvedev claimed in December that approximately 440,000 recruits joined the Russian military in 2024.
The ISW interprets this as Russia attempting to match its casualty replacements one-to-one, maintaining its military strength despite the ongoing high casualties.
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