One-in-five are expected to be diagnosed with a ‘major illness’ by 2040 – an increase of 37 percent compared with 2019 – putting further strain on healthcare systems, claims a new report from the Health Foundation (HF).
Cases involving dementia are predicted to rise by up to 45 percent, heart failure by 92 percent, cancer by 31 percent, diabetes by 49 percent, chronic pain by 32 percent, and anxiety and depression by 16 percent. This would represent an additional two-and-a-half million people living with such illnesses, bringing the overall amount in Britain to over nine million. Four-fifths of the increase will be caused by the age of the population, which is still expected to increase.
Gains in health, including cholesterol reduction and reduced smoking, are expected to be offset by the prevalence of obesity – which has already broadly doubled in the last 30 years – over the coming decades, compounded further by the obesity rates among children.
“Over the next two decades, the growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS, particularly primary care, where services are already under extreme pressure,” states Anita Charlesworth, director of the Real Center at the HF.
“We are living longer and living longer with more sickness. We’ve known this for some time but this research from the Health Foundation puts it into pretty stark detail,” argues the health correspondent, Ashish Joshi.
The international prevalence of diabetes by 2050 is expected to be as high as 1.3 billion, with 96 percent of all cases diagnosed as Type 2 caused by obesity.
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