An analysis by the More in Common think tank suggests significant losses for the ruling UK Labour Party if an election were held today. Despite securing a victory under Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer less than six months ago, Labour is now projected to lose a whopping 200 parliamentary seats, largely influenced by the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The data says Labour would win a mere 228 seats, a sharp decline from the 411 the party achieved in the recent election.
The study, conducted for London’s Sunday Times, indicates that seven current cabinet ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, would be unseated, with six losing to Reform candidates. Other key figures, such as Defence Secretary John Healey, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting, are similarly projected to lose their seats.
Labour’s projected seat count falls below the 326 needed for a majority, which would lead to a ‘hung parliament’ and the need for a coalition government. Even a partnership with the Liberal Democrats, expected to secure 58 seats, would still not suffice for a majority.
Reform UK currently holds five seats but is predicted to gain significantly, reaching 72 and becoming the third-largest party in the House of Commons. The survey indicates growing momentum for Reform, with notable support in regions such as South Yorkshire and Greater Manchester.
Public sentiment appears pessimistic regarding the Labour government’s prospects, with only 23 percent of Britons optimistic about improvements under Starmer’s leadership. Concerns persist over potential leadership changes, though the British system would facilitate an internal party selection without triggering a national election.
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