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Tag: 2024 Election
February 6, 2024
Jack Montgomery
Economy
Election 2024

Trump’s Economic Lead Over Biden Is Widest in History.

The lead Donald Trump holds over Joe Biden in terms of who would handle the economy better is the biggest of any candidate in the history of NBC polling.

The network, which began asking voters which candidate for the presidency would handle the economy better in 1992, found that 55 percent of voters believed that Trump would do the better job, compared to just 33 percent who put their faith in Biden.

Forty-eight percent also rated Trump as more likely to be competent and effective, against just 37 percent for Biden. In 2020, Biden led Trump on this measure by nine points, but his advantage has evaporated now voters have seen him in action in the White House.

The 81-year-old Democrat’s approval rating currently sits at 37 percent, lower than at any point in either his presidency or his predecessor’s.

Trump now leads Biden in all seven swing states, by margins as high as ten percent in North Carolina and eight percent in Nevada and Georgia — both officially won by Biden in 2020.

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The lead Donald Trump holds over Joe Biden in terms of who would handle the economy better is the biggest of any candidate in the history of NBC polling. show more

Editor’s Notes

Behind-the-scenes political intrigue exclusively for Pulse+ subscribers.

RAHEEM J. KASSAM Editor-in-Chief
The good news is above
for exclusive members-only insights
The good news is above show more
for exclusive members-only insights
February 5, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024

Haley Trashes Nevada, Calls Caucus ‘Rigged for Trump.’

Nimarata ‘Nikki’ Haley’s campaign is working to downplay the fact they cannot win a single delegate in the Nevada Republican presidential nomination contest. Haley opted last year to appear on the state-run primary ballot, which the Nevada Republican Party does not recognize. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump will compete in the Republican Party-run Nevada Caucus, which will allocate delegates for this summer’s Republican National Convention.

“We have not spent a dime nor an ounce of energy on Nevada,” said Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney earlier today, adding:  “We made the decision early on that we were not going to pay $55,000 to a Trump entity to participate in a process that was rigged for Trump.” Despite the Haley campaign spin, the Trump campaign was not the reason why the Nevada Republican Party moved the nomination contest to a caucus instead of participating in the state-run primary.

In 2021, Democrat lawmakers in the Nevada state legislature codified a state-run primary into law. However, they did not require state parties to allocate convention delegates based on the primary results. Nevada Republicans, concerned about election integrity following the 2020 election, moved to hold a separate caucus to determine who would be awarded the state’s 26 Republican convention delegates. Unlike the state government-run primary, the Nevada Republican Caucus requires paper ballots, same-day voting, and Voter ID.

While all indications point to former President Donald Trump handily winning the caucus, Haley may face stiff competition from the “none of these candidates” option, which will appear on the state-run primary ballot.

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Nimarata 'Nikki' Haley's campaign is working to downplay the fact they cannot win a single delegate in the Nevada Republican presidential nomination contest. Haley opted last year to appear on the state-run primary ballot, which the Nevada Republican Party does not recognize. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump will compete in the Republican Party-run Nevada Caucus, which will allocate delegates for this summer's Republican National Convention. show more

Editor’s Notes

Behind-the-scenes political intrigue exclusively for Pulse+ subscribers.

RAHEEM J. KASSAM Editor-in-Chief
In case you made it past all the links I’ve scattered throughout Will’s excellent article above, you should know that I have written a far more detailed explanation of this situation here in our analysis section! Enjoy!
for exclusive members-only insights
In case you made it past all the links I’ve scattered throughout Will’s excellent article above, you should know that I have written a far more detailed explanation of this situation here in our analysis section! Enjoy! show more
for exclusive members-only insights
facebook
February 3, 2024
News
Politics
TECH

Meta Oversight Board Member Says 2020 Election Meddling Was Not Enough, Will Do More In 2024.

Pamela San Martín, a member of Meta’s oversight board, suggested in an interview that Facebook did not do enough to control user speech during previous election cycles — Meta is the parent company of Facebook. Despite actions taken against the New York Post‘s distribution of news on Hunter Biden’s laptop and former President Donald Trump’s removal from both Facebook and Instagram, San Martín claimed that more needed to be done to address potential misuse of the platform, including coordinated campaigns and bot activity aimed at undermining electoral trust and stability.

In the run-up to the 2020 elections, measures were taken by Facebook to restrict the distribution of certain news and remove ads making false claims about voter fraud. Responses from Facebook included taking down posts, flagging content for fact-checking, and promising a ban on political ads making false claims, especially concerning voter fraud. Despite these efforts, San Martín insists these attempts to control user speech were insufficient.

San Martín praised Meta’s recent efforts to further control content related to election issues, including working with electoral authorities, adding labels to politically related posts, redirecting users to reliable information sources, and implementing message forwarding limits on WhatsApp. However, she emphasized a need for Facebook to continue capturing the impact of its own algorithms and recommendation systems on the democratic process, indicating she wants to see more of such efforts, not less. San Martín told Wired, “Social media platforms need to learn from past mistakes to be able to address them better this year.”

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Pamela San Martín, a member of Meta's oversight board, suggested in an interview that Facebook did not do enough to control user speech during previous election cycles — Meta is the parent company of Facebook. Despite actions taken against the New York Post's distribution of news on Hunter Biden's laptop and former President Donald Trump's removal from both Facebook and Instagram, San Martín claimed that more needed to be done to address potential misuse of the platform, including coordinated campaigns and bot activity aimed at undermining electoral trust and stability. show more
trump biden
February 2, 2024
William Upton
Data
Election 2024

Quinnipiac, The Pollster Showing Biden in the Lead This Week, Ranks 36th for Accuracy.

A new poll from Quinnipiac showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by six points may not be as significant as some claim. While it remains to be seen how Quinnipiac’s accuracy will hold up for the 2024 election, the polling firm missed the mark over the past several election cycles.

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight provides several valuable measures for understanding how accurate a pollster has been in the past. According to their data, Quinnipiac ranks 15th overall by their custom rankings, which weight accuracy, number of polls conducted, and data transparency. When isolated for just accuracy, Quinnipiac ranks 36th overall. By comparison, according to FiveThirtyEight’s data, the New York Times/Siena poll is number one in both their custom rankings and by accuracy alone.

The Quinnipiac poll gives the Democrats a weighted three-point edge in the 2024 election, with the survey comprised of 32 percent registered Democrat voters, 29 percent Republican, 29 percent independent, and 10 percent who said other or do not know their affiliation. The last New York Times/Siena poll conducted in November showed Trump leading in five of the six key battleground states — indicating the former Republican President likely has a slight edge over the Democrat incumbent.

A bevy of polls fielded just after Quinnipiac’s show Trump and Biden in a statistical tie or Trump with an edge over Biden. Only one poll from YouGov for The Economist shows Biden with a lead (1 point). The RealClearPolitics polling average still has Trump with a 1.7 percent edge over Biden — even with their aggregate incorporating the Quinnipiac poll.

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A new poll from Quinnipiac showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by six points may not be as significant as some claim. While it remains to be seen how Quinnipiac's accuracy will hold up for the 2024 election, the polling firm missed the mark over the past several election cycles. show more
February 2, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
News
Politics

Former DeSantis Donor Robert Bigelow Backs Donald Trump With $20M Donation.

Hotel magnate and aerospace entrepreneur Robert Bigelow has announced he’s made several sizable donations to a SuperPAC and a legal defense fund aligned with former President Donald Trump. Bigelow says he’s given $1 million towards the former President’s legal defense and has committed to donate $20 million to one of his SuperPACs.

Bigelow previously supported Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s Republican presidential primary bid — and was at one point the single largest donor to the pro-DeSantis SuperPAC Never Back Down. Early on during the Republican primary, however, Bigelow and other major donors jumped ship after raising concerns the DeSantis campaign was too reliant on the SuperPAC, out-of-touch with voters, and unable to raise small-dollar donations.

Late last year, the billionaire donor signaled he was considering redirecting his financial resources to the Trump campaign. “Who would you want as a commander? I’d want somebody that would be a hell of an ass-kicker if he needed to be,” Bigelow said in an interview at the time, concluding: “On the face of it, you lean toward Trump.” He continued: “I think Trump is too strong.”

The contributions made by Bigelow to the Trump campaign suggest major donors are beginning to come to terms with the inevitability of another Trump White House run. In the first two contests of the Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump posted historic wins, easily defeating DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nimarata ‘Nikki’ Haley in Iowa and defeating Haley again in New Hampshire.

Political observers believe the former President is likely to win by double digits again in South Carolina, effectively ending any hopes Haley has of remaining in the primary.

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Hotel magnate and aerospace entrepreneur Robert Bigelow has announced he's made several sizable donations to a SuperPAC and a legal defense fund aligned with former President Donald Trump. Bigelow says he's given $1 million towards the former President's legal defense and has committed to donate $20 million to one of his SuperPACs. show more
desantis
February 2, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
News
Politics

DeSantis PAC Blew $9,000 of Donor Cash On Vanity Jackets.

A new report revealed that Never Back Down, the SuperPAC that supported the failed Ron DeSantis campaign, spent $9,000 of donor money on customized zip-up jackets.

Expenditures like expensive, customized jackets became the norm for Never Back Down — partly explaining why the SuperPAC sustained such a high burn rate of donor cash throughout the early Republican primary contest. From the start of the DeSantis campaign in the spring of 2023 to its implosion after the Iowa Republican Caucus earlier this month, Never Back Down blew through a staggering $131 million. On the other hand, the DeSantis campaign committee raised far less, resulting in a total spend of just $28.2 million. For comparison, former President Donald Trump’s campaign committee raised just shy of $20 million in the 4th Quarter of 2023 alone.

Pitfalls Of A Campaign Run Through the SuperPAC

Weak fundraising forced the DeSantis campaign early on to rely on the Never Back Down SuperPAC to run many operations that the campaign committee would typically handle. The SuperPAC took on not just ad spending — typical for such an entity — but funded ground-game operations in several states to the tune of $23 million.

The $131 million spent by Never Back Down was partly sourced from money DeSantis raised during his 2022 gubernatorial re-election campaign in Florida. As previously reported by The National Pulse, at the start of his presidential campaign, DeSantis transferred $82.5 million from his gubernatorial campaign PAC to Never Back Down. At least $21 million in funds supplied to DeSantis’s 2022 re-election by the Republican Governor’s Association may have ended up in Never Back Down’s accounts.

When all was said and done, the DeSantis campaign spent $1,697.96 per vote to come in a distant second in Iowa with just 21.2 percent of the vote. Former President Donald Trump captured 51 percent in his historic win.

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A new report revealed that Never Back Down, the SuperPAC that supported the failed Ron DeSantis campaign, spent $9,000 of donor money on customized zip-up jackets. show more
February 2, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
News
Politics

Andrew Yang: ‘If Election Were Held Today, Biden Would Lose to Trump.’

In an interview earlier this week former Democratic presidential candidate and businessman Andrew Yang, who last ran for New York City Mayor, warned that Democrat voters are becoming increasingly concerned about Joe Biden’s ability to win re-election and said that Biden would lose the election to former President Donald Trump if held today.

Democrat Voters Don’t Think Biden Can Beat Trump

According to Yang, voters in several swing states and South Carolina have expressed concerns that Joe Biden is too old and insulated from criticism to realize that the Trump campaign could win in November. Yang said he’s heard concerns about Biden’s viability, especially among older Black female voters in states like South Carolina. He also pointed to the Democratic National Committee’s move to restrict primary challenges to Biden, which is dampening overall enthusiasm among Democrats he says.

“I had some conversations like that in South Carolina over the last number of days where people would actually come to me and say, do you really think Joe could lose to Trump?” Yang said, adding: “And I would say, not only could he lose to Trump, but if the election were held today, he would lose to Trump and the poll numbers are generally getting worse, not better.”

He continued: “The most extreme thing the DNC has done to stifle democracy is canceling the primaries in Florida and North Carolina and attempting to do so in another state or two.”

Democrat Establishment Is Content Risking Trump Win

Yang has been traveling the country on behalf of Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN), who is challenging Biden for the Democrat presidential nomination. The Phillips campaign surrogate said he believes a lot of the potential primary challengers to Biden — like California Governor Gavin Newsom — declined to run because they’re content running in 2028 even if that means “…throwing the country to Trump who is beating Joe Biden in most every national poll and in the all-important swing states.”

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In an interview earlier this week former Democratic presidential candidate and businessman Andrew Yang, who last ran for New York City Mayor, warned that Democrat voters are becoming increasingly concerned about Joe Biden's ability to win re-election and said that Biden would lose the election to former President Donald Trump if held today. show more
February 1, 2024
William Upton
News
Politics

John Podesta is Back in the White House.

President Joe Biden is set to name his former senior adviser, John Podesta, as the replacement for John Kerry as special climate envoy for the United States. The 75-year-old Podesta served as the White House chief of staff to former President Bill Clinton, as counselor to former President Barack Obama, and chaired Hillary Clinton’s campaign for president in 2016. Earlier this month, John Kerry announced he was leaving the White House and transitioning to Biden’s re-election campaign.

Before being tapped by Biden to serve as the special climate envoy, Podesta oversaw White House policy on clean energy. Implementing the Inflation Reduction Act was among the major issues in the long-time progressive operative’s portfolio. The massive green agenda legislation was billed as an anti-inflation measure but has likely contributed to the increase in prices under the Biden government.

Podesta’s elevation likely signals that the Biden government intends to shift its focus away from international climate policy and instead escalate efforts to finalize new domestic rules before the November 2024 general election. Former President Donald Trump, shown to be either neck-in-neck or ahead of Biden in most general election polls, has pledged to undo much of the onerous environmental regulations enacted by the Democrat President.

On the campaign trail, Trump has repeatedly pointed to the failure of Biden’s electric car mandates and subsidies. Manufacturers and auto-worker unions have had a tepid response to Biden’s electric car agenda as consumer demand has fallen. Under Podesta’s guidance, the subsidies and mandates are unlikely to be reversed.

“We need to keep meeting the gravity of this moment, and there is no one better than John Podesta to make sure we do,” Biden’s chief of staff Jeff Zients said in a statement. Zients added that Podesta will continue to be “at the helm of driving the implementation of the most significant climate law in history.”

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President Joe Biden is set to name his former senior adviser, John Podesta, as the replacement for John Kerry as special climate envoy for the United States. The 75-year-old Podesta served as the White House chief of staff to former President Bill Clinton, as counselor to former President Barack Obama, and chaired Hillary Clinton’s campaign for president in 2016. Earlier this month, John Kerry announced he was leaving the White House and transitioning to Biden’s re-election campaign. show more
February 1, 2024
Economy
Election 2024

Blackstone CEO Says ‘U.S. Isn’t Prepared For 4 More Years Of Joe Biden.’

Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, expressed serious concerns about the future of the U.S. economy should President Joe Biden win another term in the White House. In an interview with Bloomberg in Davos, Switzerland, Schwarzman cited the current $2 trillion deficit, increasing debt-to-GDP ratio, and open borders policy as economic threats.

He questioned whether the nation could endure another four years of these economic conditions. “I don’t know that the country, frankly, is prepared for four more years of that,” Schwarzman said in Davos.

As of January 31, the U.S. national debt reached $34.1 trillion, surpassing the combined GDP of the world’s next five largest economies: China, Japan, Germany, India, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously, the U.S. federal budget deficit stood at $1.75 trillion. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio sits at around 122 percent. Schwarzman commented that the U.S. should aim to “get our financial house in order,” but he did not believe a significant financial crisis was impending.

Despite his warning, Schwarzman expressed optimism for the future of the American economy in 2024. He referenced the slowed economy as a normal response to high interest rates but projected that rates would decrease during the latter part of the year. With Blackstone measuring U.S. inflation at approximately 2 percent, the Federal Reserve’s target rate, Schwarzman said he is confident in the likelihood of Fed rate cuts.

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Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, expressed serious concerns about the future of the U.S. economy should President Joe Biden win another term in the White House. In an interview with Bloomberg in Davos, Switzerland, Schwarzman cited the current $2 trillion deficit, increasing debt-to-GDP ratio, and open borders policy as economic threats. show more
McCarthy
February 1, 2024
William Upton
News
Politics

McCarthy & Allies Vow ‘Consequences’ for GOP Members Who Ousted Him.

Kevin McCarthy and his allies on Capitol Hill are threatening “consequences” for the “traitors” who removed the former House Speaker. Brian O. Walsh – a close McCarthy friend who runs an establishment political consultancy called Red Elephant – is working to recruit primary challengers to take on the eight Republicans who led the effort to oust the Californian as Speaker last year.

McCarthy and Walsh are preparing a ‘revenge tour’ — using the former Speaker’s donor network to raise funds to back the primary challengers.

“These traitors chose to side with Nancy Pelosi, AOC and over 200 Democrats to undermine the institution, their fellow Republicans and a duly elected Speaker,” Brian O. Walsh said in a statement. “There must be consequences for that decision.”

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed a ‘motion to vacate’ against then-Speaker McCarthy after the Republican leader pushed through a temporary government funding measure without any attached spending cuts. A group of House conservatives led by Gaetz argued that McCarthy had violated an agreement he made at the start of 2023, which had secured the votes for his Speakership. Before McCarthy’s ouster, no Speaker had ever been successfully removed by a ‘motion to vacate.’

Almost immediately after his ouster, McCarthy began plotting his political revenge against those he believed betrayed him. When Republicans began electing a new Speaker, McCarthy and his allies worked behind the scenes to undermine several early candidates, including Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. Little-known Representative Mike Johnson (R-LA) eventually secured the voters to be elected Speaker.

Recently released campaign finance data reveals that McCarthy – who resigned from Congress at the end of December – has just under $10 million cash on hand that could be used to fund primary challengers. It remains to be seen if he can draw additional donor funds to underwrite his revenge efforts.

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Kevin McCarthy and his allies on Capitol Hill are threatening “consequences” for the “traitors” who removed the former House Speaker. Brian O. Walsh – a close McCarthy friend who runs an establishment political consultancy called Red Elephant – is working to recruit primary challengers to take on the eight Republicans who led the effort to oust the Californian as Speaker last year. show more