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Tag: Arizona
November 1, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
Election Integrity

AZ Must Hand Over List of Voters Who Lack Proof of Citizenship, Rules Judge.

A state judge has ruled that Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) must produce a complete list of over 218,000 registered voters who failed to provide proof of citizenship. According to the order issued by a judge at the Superior Court of Arizona for Maricopa County, Fontes must produce the list by Monday, November 4.

Fontes is now required to release the voter registration data to America First Legal, the plaintiff in the case.

 

Earlier this month, The National Pulse reported that the Arizona Secretary of State’s office acknowledged it had discovered over 218,000 individuals on its voter rolls who lacked proof of citizenship at the time of registration. The discrepancy was attributed to data coding issues involving driver’s license information between the Arizona Department of Transportation’s Motor Vehicle Division and the state voter registration databases.

The massive voter registration error was first identified last month when approximately 97,000 voters were found to be listed as full-ballot voters without providing the required citizenship documentation for state elections. Arizona requires those registering to vote in state-level elections to provide documentary proof of citizenship (DPOC). Consequently, if a voter cannot provide the required information, they’re designated as only being allowed to cast a federal election ballot.

According to the state investigation into the database issue, approximately 79,000 registered Republicans and 61,000 Democrats are impacted. An additional 76,000 voters who are registered under other political parties are also affected.

The potentially erroneous registrations have raised serious concerns about both noncitizen voters casting ballots and legal voters impacted by the error being denied their right to vote. America First Legal’s court win will help ensure public transparency regarding the state’s voter roll database error in the critical battleground state of Arizona.

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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A state judge has ruled that Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) must produce a complete list of over 218,000 registered voters who failed to provide proof of citizenship. According to the order issued by a judge at the Superior Court of Arizona for Maricopa County, Fontes must produce the list by Monday, November 4. show more
November 1, 2024
Data
Election 2024

Newly Registered Women Dominate Early Voting in PA, But Men Are Flooding It in AZ.

As of October 30, nearly 60 million Americans have already voted in the presidential election. There has been a notable influx of new voters in the vital swing states of Pennsylvania and Arizona from demographics that favor Vice Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump, respectively.

In Pennsylvania, data indicates an increase in newly registered female Democratic voters. This trend could influence the election’s outcome. To date, Pennsylvania has seen over 100,000 new voters participate early. Conversely, in Arizona, the emergence of new male Republican voters is prominent, with early voting numbers already surpassing the 2020 margin of just 10,457 votes.

New voters who didn’t participate in 2020 are pivotal, as they may alter the landscape compared to the previous election. While the specific choices of these voters remain unknown, those who register as Democrats likely lean towards Harris, while Republican registrants likely lean towards Trump.

In North Carolina and Nevada, the largest category among new voters is those unaffiliated with any party. Their choices could significantly impact the election.

As new voter participation already exceeds previous election margins in several swing states, such individuals are set to play a decisive role in a closely contested electoral landscape.

Image by Victoria Pickering.

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As of October 30, nearly 60 million Americans have already voted in the presidential election. There has been a notable influx of new voters in the vital swing states of Pennsylvania and Arizona from demographics that favor Vice Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump, respectively. show more
November 1, 2024
William Upton
Data
Election 2024

WATCH: Dems Fail to Build Blue Firewall Ahead of Polling Day.

The National Pulse’s Editor-in-Chief, Raheem Kassam, joined recently freed former Trump White House Chief Strategist Stephen K. Bannon on War Room to explain how the Democrats have failed to build a strong enough firewall in the three Rust Belt battleground states.

Despite some concerns regarding an uptick in Democrat-identifying female voters in Pennsylvania, Kassam breaks down voter data showing that Democrats are falling short of the early vote margins they need to hold off Donald J. Trump’s expected Election Day voter surge.


“It comes down to how a lot of the data is coming out right now—a lot of what we expect, a lot of what the graphs are showing us,” Kassas tells Bannon, noting at least one area of concern: “What the data shows us, as far as their voter file data that is coming out, is that in Pennsylvania they claim about double the number of female Democrats—new voters specifically—are voting than, say, female Republicans.”

“The numbers amongst men… pretty much the same,” Kassam adds. Despite the boost from new female voters, however, the Democrat early vote numbers already banked in Pennsylvania appear to be falling short of the margins they need to overcome the usual Republican turnout on the actual day of the election.

In other battleground states, the numbers for Trump are much better—especially in the Sun Belt states of Arizona and Nevada: “The numbers, however, flip completely on their head when you go to a state like Arizona. What they’re showing us in Arizona is that male Republicans are outstripping male Democrats by about two to one and that the female numbers are about parity,” Kassam says.

While the female low-propensity voter data in Pennsylvania should concern the Trump campaign, a strong push of the Republican base vote heading into election day could still see Trump win the state. The state’s early vote has predominantly been older, leaving a significant segment of younger voters yet to turn out or vote. This means Democrats may still face a base turnout crisis in the must-win swing state.

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The National Pulse's Editor-in-Chief, Raheem Kassam, joined recently freed former Trump White House Chief Strategist Stephen K. Bannon on War Room to explain how the Democrats have failed to build a strong enough firewall in the three Rust Belt battleground states. show more
November 1, 2024
NatSec
Politics

U.S. Non-Profits Investigated Over Terror Ties.

The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee is pushing state attorneys general to begin investigations into at least six tax-exempt organizations potentially linked to foreign terrorist activities. In a series of letters released earlier this week, Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) notified officials in the states of Washington, New York, Virginia, Arizona, California, and Texas that certain organizations may be operating beyond their tax-exempt mandates, promoting antisemitism, and engaging in unlawful activities.

Chairman Smith notes that these non-profits all appear to be “operating outside their tax-exempt purpose, fueling antisemitic activities, and potentially engaging in activity that violates both state and federal law,” adding the grounds to revoke their tax-exempt status.

Among the organizations singled out is The Palestine Chronicle, a nonprofit media company in Washington State, accused of employing a Hamas operative. The operative was reportedly involved in holding Israeli hostages, leading to his death during a subsequent rescue operation.

In addition to Washington, New York’s Attorney General Letitia James (D) has been asked to look into the Westchester People’s Action Coalition and The People’s Forum. These groups stand accused of promoting antisemitism by allegedly supporting riots. Virginia’s Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has similarly been prompted to investigate the Americans for Justice in Palestine Educational Foundation and American Muslims for Palestine for also potentially inciting riots.

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes (D) received a request to pursue the Alliance for Global Justice, citing ties with Samidoun, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization. Letters sent to California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) also outlined suspicions regarding other nonprofits—including the Tides Foundation—and their possible illegal affiliations with terrorist groups.

Image by Fars Media Corporation.

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The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee is pushing state attorneys general to begin investigations into at least six tax-exempt organizations potentially linked to foreign terrorist activities. In a series of letters released earlier this week, Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) notified officials in the states of Washington, New York, Virginia, Arizona, California, and Texas that certain organizations may be operating beyond their tax-exempt mandates, promoting antisemitism, and engaging in unlawful activities. show more
October 31, 2024
William Upton
Data
Election 2024

2020’s Most Accurate Pollster Has Really Bad News for Kamala.

AtlasIntel, considered the most accurate pollster in the 2020 presidential election, has released its final voter survey of the seven critical battleground states. While the electorate could certainly have shifted from the 2020 presidential contest—and no U.S. election is the same—the data suggests President Donald J. Trump holds leads in all but one of the seven states, which would result in a significant Electoral College victory.

According to the data, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona by 4.2 points. Meanwhile, he leads Harris in North Carolina by 3.7 points and in Nevada by 3.6 points. The presidential race is closer in the remaining battleground states, with Trump leading Harris by 2.3 points in Georgia. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump leads Harris by just 1.5 and 0.6 points, respectively. And in Wisconsin, the America First leader narrowly trails his Democratic Party opponent by a razor-thin 0.2 points.

While the AtlasIntel survey suggests the electoral momentum continues to move in Trump’s direction, the narrow margins remain concerning for Republicans. Trump and Harris are well within the margin of error outside Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. In recent weeks, a majority of polls have shown the race tightening and beginning to lean in Trump’s direction. However, the 2024 Republican presidential nominee has not broken through entirely and put distance between himself and Harris.

It is unclear if recent polling has captured any movement among voters related to President Joe Biden’s Tuesday remarks during a Harris campaign event where he called tens of millions of Trump supporters “garbage.” Meanwhile, in another Harris campaign gaffe on Thursday, billionaire Harris donor and campaign surrogate Mark Cuban insinuated that women who back Trump are weak and dumb.

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AtlasIntel, considered the most accurate pollster in the 2020 presidential election, has released its final voter survey of the seven critical battleground states. While the electorate could certainly have shifted from the 2020 presidential contest—and no U.S. election is the same—the data suggests President Donald J. Trump holds leads in all but one of the seven states, which would result in a significant Electoral College victory. show more
October 30, 2024
William Upton
Data
Election 2024

These Numbers Are Freaking Democrats Out.

With just a week to go before the conclusion of the 2024 U.S. elections, new data shows President Donald J. Trump with a healthy lead over the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, in Arizona. The latest survey has Trump sitting at a comfortable 50 percent of the vote, while Harris has fallen to just 42 percent. Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, Republican Kari Lake leads narrowly for the first time over far-left Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).

The National Pulse’s Editor-in-Chief, Raheem Kassam, noted yesterday on X (formerly Twitter) that the Trump campaign’s internal polling suggested they were putting significant distance between themselves and Harris in several critical battleground states. It would appear that the Data Orbital poll of Arizona released on Tuesday reflects similar momentum. Should Trump win Arizona by a healthy margin, his coattails are likely to help Lake best Gallego as well.

Gallego, a far-left member of the Democratic Party, has been the subject of voter ire over his support for the Biden-Harris government’s radical open-border policies and his ignoring of the Chinese Communist Party’s influence in American politics.

The National Pulse reported in early October that Gallego’s allegedly estranged father was arrested in Chicago for punching his landlady after she attempted to collect overdue rent. A Mexican national and immigrant visa holder, Jose Angel Marinelarena has previously been convicted of drug trafficking.

Arizona is considered one of a handful of must-win swing states for both the Trump and Harris campaigns. However, voter data indicates that in recent weeks, the state has shifted away from Democrats and towards Trump. A Trump and Lake win in Arizona would push Republicans much closer to capturing both the White House and a Senate majority.

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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With just a week to go before the conclusion of the 2024 U.S. elections, new data shows President Donald J. Trump with a healthy lead over the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, in Arizona. The latest survey has Trump sitting at a comfortable 50 percent of the vote, while Harris has fallen to just 42 percent. Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, Republican Kari Lake leads narrowly for the first time over far-left Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). show more
October 24, 2024
Jack Montgomery
Election 2024

29 Million Early Mail-In and In-Person Votes Already Cast.

Around 29 million Americans have now cast early votes, either in-person or by mail. Data company TargetSmart reports that 43 percent of early voters so far are registered Democrats, 39 percent are Republicans, and 18 percent are not aligned with the two major parties.

While early voting does favor the Democrats slightly overall, other sources indicate Vice President Kamala Harris’s party is doing a worse job turning out supporters in battleground states than in previous elections, while Republicans are turning out much stronger for former President Donald J. Trump.

CNN—using data from Catalist, election officials, and Edison Research—notes that at this point in the 2020 election, early votes in Pennsylvania were 71 percent Democratic and 20 percent Republican. This year, the Democrats have dropped to 61 percent, and the GOP has risen to 29 percent.

Meanwhile, the Democratic advantage has vanished in North Carolina. In 2020, they led the GOP on 40 percent to 28 percent; now, the parties are tied at 34 percent.

Conversely, the GOP now leads early voting in Arizona and Nevada, accounting for 42 percent and 38 percent of early voters, respectively. Democrats sit at 36 percent in both states. At this point in 2020, the Democrats led Republicans in both states, 42 percent to 34 percent and 44 percent to 33 percent.

Local media in Nevada report an “unheard of” advantage for Republicans in early in-person voting, and the GOP is also said to be ahead in mail-in votes—traditionally a Democrat strength—in North Carolina. Early voting is also taking place in Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but information on the party registration of early voters in those swing states is not available.

Source: CNN.
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Around 29 million Americans have now cast early votes, either in-person or by mail. Data company TargetSmart reports that 43 percent of early voters so far are registered Democrats, 39 percent are Republicans, and 18 percent are not aligned with the two major parties. show more
October 23, 2024
Christopher Tomlinson
Crime
Election 2024
Politics

AZ Man Arrested For Threats Toward Trump Jr. and Charlie Kirk.

A man in Arizona has been arrested by police over online threats directed at Donald Trump Jr. and political activist Charlie Kirk after the pair had attended a political rally in Tempe last week. Daniel Ashpes, 24, was arrested by police this week after replying to automated messages asking people to RSVP to the Turning Point USA rally featuring Don Jr. and Kirk, held at a local Tempe hotel.

Detectives investigated the matter after being informed that threatening messages had been sent, though police have not expanded on the messages’ content. Following his arrest, Ashpes admitted to sending the messages and was booked on charges of threatening to cause physical injury as well as using a phone to threaten others.

The case comes as the Department of Justice (DOJ) announced this week that a Philadelphia man had been arrested for threatening to skin alive a state party worker looking for poll watcher volunteers. John Pollard faces a possible five-year prison sentence for sending a text message that stated, “GONNA F*CKING FIND YOU AND SKIN YOU ALIVE AND USE YOUR SKIN FOR F*CKING TOILET PAPER, YOU F*CKING KKK*NT!”

Political violence and threats of violence have been a major issue throughout the 2024 presidential campaign, with President Donald J. Trump being shot and one of his supporters killed at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July.

Another attempted assassination came in September. Ryan Routh, a Democrat donor with strong connections to Ukraine and the Ukrainian military, was arrested after camping out in a bush at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, with a rifle.

As a result, Trump has halted all golfing plans until after the election. Trump’s campaign has also requested military aircraft and other support measures for enhanced protection.

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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A man in Arizona has been arrested by police over online threats directed at Donald Trump Jr. and political activist Charlie Kirk after the pair had attended a political rally in Tempe last week. Daniel Ashpes, 24, was arrested by police this week after replying to automated messages asking people to RSVP to the Turning Point USA rally featuring Don Jr. and Kirk, held at a local Tempe hotel. show more
October 23, 2024
Election 2024

‘GPS Spoofing’ Plagues GOP Canvassing App – What Does it Mean?

A video allegedly showing an America PAC vote canvasser in Nevada using GPS spoofing technology to simulate door-to-door voter outreach without actually visiting the locations is raising concerns President Donald J. Trump’s get-out-the-vote operation may be compromised. First obtained by the Guardian newspaper, the footage appears to be an instructional video outlining how users can download an application to falsely position themselves at targeted addresses, complete with fabricated survey responses.

America PAC—backed by a $75 million contribution from tech billionaire Elon Musk—has largely spearheaded voter outreach efforts for Trump’s presidential campaign in several critical swing states. If the use of GPS spoofing applications is widespread among canvassers, it could seriously undermine efforts to mobilize Trump’s voter base in critical battleground states like Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Despite the release of the video, the full extent of the spoofing practice remains uncertain, largely due to the difficulty of detecting such activities without corroborative data from alternative tracking systems. However, the Guardian notes it casts doubt on the authenticity of voter interactions reported by America PAC’s field operations.

In response to these developments, America PAC, alongside its vendors Blitz, Patriot Grassroots, Echo Canyon, and the Synapse Group, issued a statement asserting their use of advanced auditing tools designed to identify fraudulent activities and ensure accountability within their operations. Additionally, Blitz—which oversees canvassing efforts in Arizona and Nevada—employs the Quickbooks Workforce app that includes tracking features—although these can be circumvented by disabling location services.

America PAC is not alone in facing such challenges; GPS spoofing has been a longstanding issue in political canvassing that is costly to monitor effectively.

Image by Bret Hartman / TED.

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A video allegedly showing an America PAC vote canvasser in Nevada using GPS spoofing technology to simulate door-to-door voter outreach without actually visiting the locations is raising concerns President Donald J. Trump's get-out-the-vote operation may be compromised. First obtained by the Guardian newspaper, the footage appears to be an instructional video outlining how users can download an application to falsely position themselves at targeted addresses, complete with fabricated survey responses. show more
October 21, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024

Over 15 Million People Have Already Voted in America’s Presidential Election.

With just two weeks until Election Day, over 15 million people have already voted in the U.S. election. According to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab, five million people have voted early in person, and another 10 million have voted by mail. There are over 56 million mail-in ballot requests, meaning around 46 million remain outstanding.

During the 2020 presidential election, over 65.5 million mail-in ballots were cast. In total, 2020 saw over 155 million people vote, the highest turnout—by percentage—since 1900. While turnout in the 2024 election may not match that seen in 2020, early indications suggest the presidential contest will still see a significant number of votes cast—and that should actually bode well for former President Donald J. Trump.

ARIZONA & NEVADA.

In Arizona, early vote totals show Republicans outpacing Democrats and Independents in terms of ballots returned by low-propensity voters. These Americans, who have not voted or only voted once in the last several elections, are anticipated to play an outsized role in the 2024 election and determine whether President Trump or his Democratic Party opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, takes the White House.

Similarly to Arizona, Nevada’s early vote appears to be breaking fairly heavily towards Republicans—while Democrats hold the advantage on the state’s mail-in ballots.

Again—like Arizona—Republicans in Nevada appear to be moving low-propensity voters, while Democrats seem to be mostly reliant on voters who have consistently voted in the past several elections.

PENNSYLVANIA.

Meanwhile, one state where turnout appears to be lagging—and where lower turnout could be a good sign for Republicans—is Pennslyvania. As of noon on October 21, Republicans continue to outpace Democrats in absentee ballot requests. Interestingly, the total number of requests among Democrats is currently down from their 2020 totals by around 1.2 million, while Republicans are only off by about 250,000.

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With just two weeks until Election Day, over 15 million people have already voted in the U.S. election. According to data from the University of Florida's Election Lab, five million people have voted early in person, and another 10 million have voted by mail. There are over 56 million mail-in ballot requests, meaning around 46 million remain outstanding. show more