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Monday, September 15, 2025

Tag: Kamala Harris
November 4, 2024
William Upton
Data
Election 2024

GOP’s Early Vote Lead May Have Put Arizona Out of Reach for Democrats.

The early vote lead for Republicans in Arizona may have put the state—and its 11 electoral votes—out of reach for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats. As of Monday, Republicans expanded their lead to nearly 200,000 ballots cast.

In total, 954,306 Arizona Republicans have voted early—equating to nearly 41 percent of the pre-Election Day electorate. Meanwhile, 758,342 Democrats have voted early, making up 32.4 percent of the pre-election turnout. Independents sit at 625,731 ballots cast, with 26.8 percent of the total.

During the 2020 election, Joe Biden defeated President Donald J. Trump in Arizona by a narrow margin of just 10,457 votes. Barring a historic number of Republican to Democrat-cross-over voters or an unpreceded Election Day “blue wave,” the early vote lead suggests that Arizona has moved into the Trump column.

The early vote advantage may also bode well for Arizona’s Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Kari Lake. While most public polling has shown Lake trailing Trump’s numbers in the state, a significant margin of victory for the Republican presidential nominee could pull her across the finish line. Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) has led Lake in most voter surveys—though the race appears to have significantly tightened in the final weeks before the election.

While most polling showed Trump with a slight lead over Harris in the critical battleground state, the 2024 Republican presidential nominee cracked 50 percent for the first time in mid-October. That survey, conducted by YouGov, gave credence to speculation that momentum in Arizona had swung Trump’s way.

The strong Republican showing in Arizona should also concern Democrats regarding their abortion rights messaging strategy. Earlier this year, the Democrats rolled out a seven-figure ad buy—which included billboards in Tempe and Phoenix—pushing the abortion issue. Despite the insistence of party strategists, the move appears to have not moved the electorate in Harris’s favor.

Image by Wing-Chi Poon.

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The early vote lead for Republicans in Arizona may have put the state—and its 11 electoral votes—out of reach for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats. As of Monday, Republicans expanded their lead to nearly 200,000 ballots cast. show more
November 4, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
Media

Soros-Funded Fake News Group Spent Millions Supporting Kamala on Facebook.

An alleged media organization funded by leftist billionaire George Soros spent $9 million on digital Facebook ads supporting Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential campaign. Courier Newsroom, a Democrat dark money group that purports to be a network of local news outlets, is behind the ad campaign launched in August.

The ads primarily promote Democratic candidates, including Harris—though some also attack President Donald J. Trump over issues such as abortion and access to contraception. While Democrat and Republican political action committees (PACs) can run their own digital ads on Facebook, the social media platform labels the content as coming from a political organization and requires a disclaimer identifying the group behind the message.

However, Courier Newsroom is able to skirt this requirement by submitting its ads through a separate portal for media news outlets despite their clear partisan content. Additionally, while election and candidate PACs must disclose their donors publicly through the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Courier Newsroom is not subject to the same rules.

The Democratic dark money ad campaign has spent a total of $9.2 million since August 3, 2024, focused predominantly on the key battleground states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina. While the group’s spending may appear paltry compared to the hundreds of millions being spent on television advertising, digital ads are relatively cheap and can still reach large audiences online. In addition, Courier Newsroom appears to have used propriety data to micro-target its Facebook ads in an effort to influence young women.

In April, The National Pulse reported that Tara McGowan, founder of Courier Newsroom and its parent company Good Information Inc., had made almost 20 visits to the Biden-Harris White House. The meetings have raised concerns regarding potential election coordination.

Image by World Economic Forum/swiss-image.ch/Photo Michele Limina.

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An alleged media organization funded by leftist billionaire George Soros spent $9 million on digital Facebook ads supporting Vice President Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential campaign. Courier Newsroom, a Democrat dark money group that purports to be a network of local news outlets, is behind the ad campaign launched in August. show more
November 4, 2024
Election 2024
News
Politics

Biden Campaign Calls Canceled After ‘Garbage’ Smear.

The White House reportedly canceled several campaign calls involving President Joe Biden following his comments labeling supporters of President Donald J. Trump as “garbage.” According to guidance released by the White House the Sunday before, Biden’s schedule for Thursday, October 31, initially included participation in campaign calls. However, Biden did not take part in these calls.

Last week, Biden made headlines after a call with Voto Latino last Tuesday, where he referred to Trump supporters as “garbage” following a GOP rally in Madison Square Garden. The 81-year-old Democrat later claimed he was referencing a joke by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, in which the insult comic poked fun at Puerto Rico. Subsequently, the White House stealth-edited the official transcript of the call to support Biden’s narrative.

Despite Hinchcliffe’s joke, Trump has been endorsed by major politicians in Puerto Rico, and polls reveal that in Pennsylvania, the joke had no impact on Hispanic voting preferences.

In response to Biden’s comments, Trump incorporated a garbage truck and vest into a rally in Wisconsin, calling his supporters the “heart and soul of America.” Trump wore the vest during the rally, joking that people told him it made him look thinner.

No scheduled campaign events involving Vice President Kamala Harris are listed on Biden’s agenda before Election Day, tomorrow.

Earlier this month, at an event in New Hampshire, Biden made another contentious remark, suggesting he wanted to lock up Trump. The Trump campaign included Biden’s words in a legal filing calling for the dismissal of federal charges related to the 2020 election.

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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The White House reportedly canceled several campaign calls involving President Joe Biden following his comments labeling supporters of President Donald J. Trump as "garbage." According to guidance released by the White House the Sunday before, Biden's schedule for Thursday, October 31, initially included participation in campaign calls. However, Biden did not take part in these calls. show more
November 4, 2024
Election 2024

California’s Conservative Exodus May Hand Trump Nevada.

Former Californians could significantly influence Nevada’s political landscape in the 2024 election. Many people have moved from California to Nevada, often due to dissatisfaction with California’s far-left policies. This internal migration appears to be shifting Nevada’s voter demographics toward the Republican Party.

Early voting data in Nevada shows a notable increase in Republican participation, with registered Republicans casting 405,602 ballots against 304,614 registered Democrats. This in-person turnout has surprised many, reversing the typical early voting advantage usually held by Democrats.

Nearly 20 percent of Nevada’s population now consists of former Californians, who have been moving there in significant numbers since 2020. This demographic shift coincides with a decrease in the Nevada Democratic Party’s lead in registered voters. The number of non-affiliated voters has also increased, leading to a more competitive political environment.

Jeff Stone, a former California legislator now serving in Nevada, notes Nevada’s appeal to those seeking an escape from California’s political climate, dominated by Governor Gavin Newsom and a Democratic supermajority.

Nevada’s six electoral votes could play a critical role in the 2024 presidential race. Winning Nevada might help President Donald J. Trump secure an Electoral College majority without needing Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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Former Californians could significantly influence Nevada's political landscape in the 2024 election. Many people have moved from California to Nevada, often due to dissatisfaction with California’s far-left policies. This internal migration appears to be shifting Nevada's voter demographics toward the Republican Party. show more
November 4, 2024
William Upton
Data
Election 2024

Nate Silver Accuses Pollsters of Bias.

Election data guru and statistician Nate Silver—the founder of FiveThirtyEight—is accusing major public pollsters of “herding” their survey results to keep President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris within a point or two of each other in the 2024 presidential race. According to Silver, it is statistically irregular for a single pollster to consistently show back-and-forth point leads between candidates, which suggests to him that the public polling firms are manipulating their results.

“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver says on the latest episode of his podcast. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ No! You’re f**king herding! You’re cheating!”

“Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys,” Silver adds.

One pollster who especially drew Silver’s ire is Emerson College, which he suspects of herding most of their final run of polls. He vented, “You are lying! You’re putting your f**king finger on the scale!”

“Herding” is when a pollster uses their own and others’ prior polls to model or inform their current surveys—artificially creating a tighter contest than what the reality may be.

Currently, Silver’s own model has Trump at just over a 55 percent chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is at 44.2 percent odds of victory.

Additionally, Silver appears to believe there is an increasing chance of a split in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ for Democrats—which includes Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. If Pennsylvania falls to Trump and the Republican nominee sweeps the Sun Belt states, it is almost certain he will win the election.

Image by Gary He.

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Election data guru and statistician Nate Silver—the founder of FiveThirtyEight—is accusing major public pollsters of "herding" their survey results to keep President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris within a point or two of each other in the 2024 presidential race. According to Silver, it is statistically irregular for a single pollster to consistently show back-and-forth point leads between candidates, which suggests to him that the public polling firms are manipulating their results. show more
November 4, 2024
Election 2024
News
Politics

NBC Grants Trump Campaign Airtime During NASCAR, NFL After Harris SNL Spot.

Broadcaster NBC has granted the campaign of President Donald J. Trump a 90-second ad spot amig allegations the surprise appearance of Kamala Harris on Saturday Night Live (SNL) violated FCC rules. Harris’s brief appearance on SNL was for one minute and 30 seconds, allowing other presidential campaigns to request equal airtime—about 90 seconds—per FCC regulations.

Harris’s SNL sketch, featuring Maya Rudolph, concluded with both discussing the vice president’s campaign. The sketch, however, was criticized by FCC commissioner Brendan Carr, who stated before the show aired, “This is a clear and blatant effort to evade the FCC’s Equal Time rule.”

Carr also noted that SNL creator Lorne Michaels had previously stated in an interview last month that the show would not feature Harris or Trump because of the equal time rules.

Trump’s ad, meanwhile, appeared during Sunday’s NASCAR playoff broadcast. In it, Trump wore a red “Make America Great Again” cap and warned that electing Harris could lead to a “depression.” The ad urges viewers to vote.

Additionally, Trump received 60 extra seconds of airtime during NBC’s Sunday Night Football post-game coverage. The same ad from the NASCAR event aired after the game, closely following a paid campaign advertisement.

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Broadcaster NBC has granted the campaign of President Donald J. Trump a 90-second ad spot amig allegations the surprise appearance of Kamala Harris on Saturday Night Live (SNL) violated FCC rules. Harris's brief appearance on SNL was for one minute and 30 seconds, allowing other presidential campaigns to request equal airtime—about 90 seconds—per FCC regulations. show more
November 4, 2024
Election 2024
Immigration

Tlaib Snubs Harris at Michigan Rally.

Democratic Representative Rashida Tlaib withheld her endorsement from Vice President Kamala Harris during a critical rally in Detroit, Michigan, a decision with potential electoral consequences for the Democratic candidate. The state is crucial to the so-called “blue wall” that Democrats need to secure in the 2024 presidential election. It is home to a sizeable Muslim population, typically inclined towards the Democrats—but the Biden-Harris government’s stance on Israel has soured many on the Vice President.

Tlaib, a prominent member of the progressive “Squad” in the House of Representatives, avoided Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz at the United Auto Workers union rally. Tlaib has expressed discontent with the Biden-Harris government’s support for Israel, which she cites as a reason for her reluctance to endorse the ticket.

On November 1, she stated on social media, “The reality is that the Biden admin’s unconditional support for genocide is what got us here. This should be a wake-up call for those who continue to support genocide,” adding: “This election didn’t have to be close.”

Recent polling from Cygnal indicates that a majority of American Muslims sympathize with Hamas’s position in the Gaza war.

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Democratic Representative Rashida Tlaib withheld her endorsement from Vice President Kamala Harris during a critical rally in Detroit, Michigan, a decision with potential electoral consequences for the Democratic candidate. The state is crucial to the so-called "blue wall" that Democrats need to secure in the 2024 presidential election. It is home to a sizeable Muslim population, typically inclined towards the Democrats—but the Biden-Harris government's stance on Israel has soured many on the Vice President. show more
November 4, 2024
Jack Montgomery
Data
Election 2024

Final Emerson Poll Hands Trump Six of Seven Swing States — By Razor-Thin Margins.

Former President Donald J. Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in six of seven swing states when leaners are included in Emerson College Polling Center’s final poll. However, the margins are razor-thin, with five of Trump’s six leads under one percent.

Trump’s strongest lead is in Arizona, where he is up by 2.1 points. This falls to 0.7 in Pennsylvania, 0.5 in Georgia, 0.4 in North Carolina, 0.3 in Wisconsin, and a minuscule 0.1 in Nevada. Harris leads in Michigan by 1.6 points.

Results without leaners are also very mixed: Trump leads by two points in Arizona, and by one point in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The race is a dead heat in Nevada and Wisconsin, and in Michigan, Harris holds a two-point lead.

Emerson’s results suggest a battle of the sexes may decide the presidential contest, with men breaking for Trump and women breaking for Harris in all seven states. Men break more strongly for the America First leader than women break for the Democratic candidate in every case—but women have outpaced men in early voting turnout so far, at 54 percent to 43.6 percent.

Image by Gage Skidmore.

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Former President Donald J. Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in six of seven swing states when leaners are included in Emerson College Polling Center's final poll. However, the margins are razor-thin, with five of Trump's six leads under one percent. show more
November 4, 2024
William Upton
Election 2024
Election Integrity

Missouri Sues Biden-Harris DOJ Over Election Interference.

Missouri’s Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Attorney General Andrew Bailey are suing the Biden-Harris Department of Justice (DOJ) over allegations that the federal government is interfering in the state’s election process. The lawsuit claims the DOJ is dispatching unauthorized monitors to polling locations in St. Louis in contravention of several federal statutes and the Supreme Court’s Shelby County v. Holder decision.

“To secure elections, Missouri exercised that traditional authority by enacting a law that strictly limits who, besides voters, can be present in a polling location,” the court filing states, adding: “Poll monitors employed by DOJ are not on that list. Yet without specifically citing any federal authority authorizing its actions, DOJ announced on Friday November 1 its intent to displace Missouri law and place unauthorized poll monitors in polling locations in the City of St. Louis.”

Ashcroft and Bailey note in the filing that the Biden-Harris DOJ attempted a similar move during the 2022 midterm elections. However, the DOJ reversed its decision after Ashcroft argued in a letter that they lacked statutory authority.

“No one is above the law,” the Missouri Secretary of State said in a statement on Monday. He added: “The law clearly and specifically limits who may be in polling places and this action by the DOJ is not allowed. Once again the federal government is attempting to illegally interfere in Missouri’s elections.”

“Two years ago, we met with the DOJ. We showed them the law and explained that they have no jurisdiction to interfere in Missouri elections. Now they are doing the same thing; trying to go through the back door by contacting local election officials and making false jurisdictional claims for access rather than contacting my office directly,” Ashcroft continued before concluding: “It would be highly inappropriate for federal agents to violate the law by intimidating Missouri voters and harassing poll workers.”

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Missouri's Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Attorney General Andrew Bailey are suing the Biden-Harris Department of Justice (DOJ) over allegations that the federal government is interfering in the state's election process. The lawsuit claims the DOJ is dispatching unauthorized monitors to polling locations in St. Louis in contravention of several federal statutes and the Supreme Court's Shelby County v. Holder decision. show more
November 4, 2024
Christopher Tomlinson
Election 2024
Politics

Republican Early Voting Surges in Pennsylvania Ballot Returns.

Returned ballots in Pennsylvania suggest that Republican voters are casting far more early votes than in 2022 and are leading Democrats in 40 counties, compared to just two in 2022. Over 587,000 registered Republicans have voted early in the crucial swing state, an increase of over 323,000 compared to 2022. Democrats, who are more likely to vote early, have seen a smaller increase since 2022 of just over 140,000 votes, for a total of 997,450 overall.

When looking at 2020 numbers, Republicans have 30,692 fewer ballots returned, but Democrats have a massive 721,276 fewer returned ballots. At the county level, the GOP led the Democrats in just eight counties in 2020, a number which fell to just two counties in 2022. This year, the GOP leads the Democrats in 40 counties going into tomorrow’s election.

Prior data indicates that newly registered women dominate the early voting in Pennsylvania, with many voting Democrat. As of October 30, the state had seen at least 100,000 new voters cast their ballots early in the election.

Polling puts Trump only slightly ahead of Harris in the state. The final Emerson College Polling poll released Monday, November 4, gave President Donald J. Trump 49 percent and Vice President Kamala Harris 48 percent, well within the margin of error.

Over the weekend, the Harris campaign implied it would force key counties in battleground states like Pennsylvania to keep counting votes until Harris wins.

The Trump campaign also won an important victory in the state after Democrats and police shut down lines of voters requesting absentee ballots, as a court allowed the absentee process to be opened for several days ahead of tomorrow’s election.

Image by formulanone.

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Returned ballots in Pennsylvania suggest that Republican voters are casting far more early votes than in 2022 and are leading Democrats in 40 counties, compared to just two in 2022. Over 587,000 registered Republicans have voted early in the crucial swing state, an increase of over 323,000 compared to 2022. Democrats, who are more likely to vote early, have seen a smaller increase since 2022 of just over 140,000 votes, for a total of 997,450 overall. show more