Cruz’s Arizona Loss Shows Trying to Out-Trump Trump Is a Losing Game

Ted Cruz won big in Utah, but his almost equally big loss in Arizona — Donald Trump thumped him 47 percent to 25 percent — should be a warning sign to his campaign: you can’t out-Trump the Trump. The headlines for Cruz the morning after his great Utah victory are astonishingly bad for him heading into Wisconsin — talk of patrolling Muslim neighborhoods, as if we live in a police state, and the name-calling exchange with Trump about their wives. Cruz has one big shot at the increasingly dwindling likelihood that he can beat or pull close to Trump before

Can Cruz Pull Off an Upset in Arizona?

While it appears Utah is Ted Cruz’s to lose today, Arizona presents a unique challenge to his winning a GOP Primary Daily Double.  The weekend polling of likely primary voters Maggie cited showed a few surprises. Prior to this poll, there had been a dearth of new polling, leading many to believe that the race was already decided for Donald Trump given the history of early voting in Arizona. John Fund, in a weekend National Review piece, agrees: Arizona is an early-voting state, and people can cast ballots up to 26 days before the actual primary. As of last Thursday,

Kasich Pulls Enough to Put Trump Ahead in Arizona

A new poll shows that Donald Trump is likely to win all Arizona’s delegates, thanks in part to John Kasich’s ongoing capacity to attract the support of GOP moderates. The failure, of course, is also Ted Cruz’s: running head-to-head with Trump on immigration in Arizona was probably a mistake. Trump continues to win the anti-immigration vote in most states. A new Fox News 10/ Opinion Savvy poll released over the weekend shows Trump dominating with 46 percent to 33 percent for Cruz and 17 percent for Kasich. Interestingly, the early vote (about 11 percent) went less strongly for Trump, indicating

Ted Cruz Can Beat Trump

Tuesday is the crucial moment. For Ted Cruz to have any chance of stopping Donald Trump, he has to shock the punditocracy by winning all the delegates in Arizona and Utah. In Utah, that means he must top 50 percent. Getting there in a three-man race is daunting, but with all those conservative Mormons who don’t swear the state should be Cruz country. In Arizona, Cruz needs just one more vote than Trump. The media has assumed that because Trump wins anti-immigration voters, he’ll easily carry Arizona. But the latest polls there show Trump taking either 31 percent or 37

New Poll: Arizonans Undecided

A new Arizona poll has Donald Trump ahead but with only 31 percent, and almost 30 percent remain undecided. Ted Cruz is second at 19 percent, and John Kasich has 10 percent. The poll was taken before Marco Rubio had dropped out, and he earned 10 percent of the vote. The pundits who said the math shows Cruz can’t win put Arizona into Trump’s pile, assuming immigration drives the majority of Arizona voters. This is obviously not true. Will Arizona and Utah vault Cruz back into close contention for delegates? Will Kasich decide to stop taking Democratic money and stop helping nominate