Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? We Make Our Electoral College Predictions


Happy Election Day! With voting set to conclude this evening — make sure to vote if you haven’t already! — it’s time to reveal our predictions for who will be sworn in next January as the 45th President of the United States.

Will it be Donald Trump? Or will it be Hillary Clinton? Here’s what our writers think:

Steve Wagner — Trump wins 274-264

A surprise upset in Wisconsin, plus key wins in the swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, propel Donald Trump to a 10-point electoral college victory.


Shane Vander Hart — Clinton wins 307-231

Hillary Clinton’s advantage in early voting, plus an uptick in Hispanic votes, is enough to push her over the top in Florida and Nevada while preventing Trump upsets in Pennsylvania and Michigan.


Terry Schilling — Trump wins 278-260

Donald Trump ekes out a close win in Florida while using high turnout from working-class whites to pull off upsets in Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Maine’s 2nd congressional district (ME-2) — enough for an 18-point electoral college victory.


Matt Bowman — Trump wins 270-268

Swing state wins in Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and ME-2 give Donald Trump just enough electoral votes to eke out a 2-point victory over Clinton.


William Upton — Clinton wins 283-255

Victories by Donald Trump in Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire are not enough to breach Hillary Clinton’s firewall, as she wins North Carolina and the White House.


Mary Powers — Trump wins 272-266

Despite losing Nevada, Donald Trump shocks the political world by winning Virginia and uses victories in Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire to complete his 6-point electoral college triumph over Clinton.

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Jon Schweppe — Trump wins 320-218

It’s a Trump wave! The Donald wins almost every swing state, including big upsets in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, and New Mexico, on his way to a substantial electoral college victory.


Paul Dupont — Clinton wins 323-215

A late break by many undecided voters toward Hillary Clinton, plus a superior get-out-the-vote effort, doom Trump in Florida and North Carolina while fueling a significant electoral college win for the Democrats.


Joshua Pinho — Trump wins 286-252

A Michigan upset for Donald Trump, added to wins in Florida and North Carolina, gives the Republican a comfortable 34-point electoral college victory over Clinton.


Kevin Dawson — 269-269 tie

It’s the dreaded electoral college tie! Donald Trump gets swing state wins in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and ME-2, while Hillary Clinton pulls off victories in New Hampshire and Nevada to send the presidential race to the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time since 1824.


For those of you keeping track at home, that’s 6 predictions for Donald Trump, 3 predictions for Hillary Clinton, and 1 prediction of a tie. Tune in tonight to find out who was the most accurate!

Editor’s note: All maps created via

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