There is a 31 percent – nearly one-in-three – chance that President Joe Biden will die before completing a prospective second term in office, according to life expectancy data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The number rises to a 64 percent chance of death for the octogenarian president when looking at the next ten years, as illustrated by PhD scholar Merrill Matthews at The Hill.
In fact, Matthews argues the man who will be 82 in 2024 is doing “one of the most stressful jobs in the world,” and has a number of “health challenges” which mean his likelihood of dying is office is more like “50 percent.”
Given those factors, it might be reasonable to bump up Biden’s 31.35 percent chance of dying in office to perhaps 50 percent. Thus, it is highly possible, perhaps even probable, that a Biden reelection victory would result in Kamala Harris becoming the first female president.
– Merrill Matthews PhD
A majority of men at 70 are expected to live another ten years, and a quarter are expected to make it to 90. The average 80-year-old man has just under a one-in-three probability of dying within five years. But that number relies on the individual being healthy.
“Eight years as commander in chief appears to dramatically age even a vigorous middle-aged man. And Biden is neither vigorous nor a middle-ager,” Matthews adds, though concedes that not all septuagenarians or octogenarians lack vigor as “Donald Trump at 77 is closing in on 80, and is still very physically active and high energy.”
President Biden’s declining health has not escaped the attention of the electorate. A whopping 83 percent of Americans admitted to being “concerned” about Biden’s physical and mental health in a recent poll.
