An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National poll shows third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. helping secure an easy victory for President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump in a 2024 showdown. Since Kennedy announced his departure from the Democratic race to run as an independent, speculation has emerged about whom he would impact more negatively: Trump or Biden.
The poll suggests if Kennedy were to be factored into the election, Biden would emerge the winner with a seven point lead over Trump. The current poll results show Biden with 44 percent of the vote, followed by Trump with 37 percent, and Kennedy with 16 percent. Three percent remain undecided.
“Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favor.”
– Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion
Among party preferences, the poll indicates Biden loses five percentage points among Democrats, while Trump loses ten points among Republicans when Kennedy is included on the ballot. Despite being criticized by his own family, Kennedy’s presence in the election might be beneficial to Democrats, with a notable one in six voters expressing a desire for an alternative option, particularly amongst independents.
The survey was conducted on October 11 among 1,313 American adults.