A new survey conducted by Reuters on Monday and Tuesday, after 81-year-old Democrat incumbent Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection, shows Vice President Kamala Harris running two points ahead of former President Donald J. Trump, the 2024 Republican nominee. The poll suggests the 2024 presidential election could be tightening, with Harris now at the top of the Democratic ticket.
However, the Reuters poll—conducted by Ipsos—has received some pushback. Critics point to Reuters having historically oversampled Democrats in their surveys, leading to a significant polling error during the 2016 presidential election. In the current poll by Reuters and Ipsos, 426 Democrats were reached for a response, while just 376 Republican responses were registered. The Reuters oversample of Democrats versus Republicans in 2016 ran roughly four to six percent.
In addition to accusations of sample bias, others point to the expectation that Harris would rise in the polls in part because of Biden’s exit from the race and her being viewed as a fresh candidate—especially by disillusioned Democrat voters. A polling surge by Harris, in this instance, could be only temporary, with the presidential race returning to its prior dynamics after the Harris honeymoon phase fades.
“That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” pollster Tony Fabrizio, a Trump campaign pollster, noted in a memo circulated to press members.
However, the survey contains some data points that are concerning for Trump supporters. Voters view Harris as more mentally sharp than Biden and Trump. According to the data, 56 percent of respondents said Harris was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges.” Meanwhile, 49 percent said the same for former President Trump.