With just two weeks until Election Day, over 15 million people have already voted in the U.S. election. According to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab, five million people have voted early in person, and another 10 million have voted by mail. There are over 56 million mail-in ballot requests, meaning around 46 million remain outstanding.
During the 2020 presidential election, over 65.5 million mail-in ballots were cast. In total, 2020 saw over 155 million people vote, the highest turnout—by percentage—since 1900. While turnout in the 2024 election may not match that seen in 2020, early indications suggest the presidential contest will still see a significant number of votes cast—and that should actually bode well for former President Donald J. Trump.
ARIZONA & NEVADA.
In Arizona, early vote totals show Republicans outpacing Democrats and Independents in terms of ballots returned by low-propensity voters. These Americans, who have not voted or only voted once in the last several elections, are anticipated to play an outsized role in the 2024 election and determine whether President Trump or his Democratic Party opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, takes the White House.
Similarly to Arizona, Nevada’s early vote appears to be breaking fairly heavily towards Republicans—while Democrats hold the advantage on the state’s mail-in ballots.
Again—like Arizona—Republicans in Nevada appear to be moving low-propensity voters, while Democrats seem to be mostly reliant on voters who have consistently voted in the past several elections.
PENNSYLVANIA.
Meanwhile, one state where turnout appears to be lagging—and where lower turnout could be a good sign for Republicans—is Pennslyvania. As of noon on October 21, Republicans continue to outpace Democrats in absentee ballot requests. Interestingly, the total number of requests among Democrats is currently down from their 2020 totals by around 1.2 million, while Republicans are only off by about 250,000.