Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign is fretting over whether the Democratic Vice President will be able to hold the so-called “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The three Rust Belt states typically trend together in terms of which candidate wins their electoral votes—though there are some signs that may change this election cycle. According to a senior Harris campaign official, Michigan has especially become a concern.
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” a Harris campaign official tells NBC News. The individual, along with other Harris campaign sources, stresses that Michigan is the bigger concern at the moment.
Should Harris lose either Michigan or Wisconsin, her path to the White House becomes far more difficult. The Democratic Vice President would need to make up for the loss with a win in North Carolina or a combination of several other swing states to reach 270 electoral votes. However, the Harris campaign is also feeling less confident regarding North Carolina, with at least one campaign official acknowledging the state appears to be slipping away.
A combination of factors is complicating the Democratic Party’s efforts to win Michigan. Arab-American voters are showing signs of turning against Harris over U.S. support for Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah. Meanwhile, several recent endorsements of President Donald J. Trump by Arab-American and Muslim leaders in Michigan are likely to push the community toward the Republican nominee.
Additionally, Trump has seen a surge in support from rank-and-file union members, with polling conducted by the Teamsters suggesting their members are breaking for the former president by a nearly two-to-one margin over Harris. A decisive break for Trump among working-class voters could potentially push the entire “blue wall” into the Republican column on election night.