The early vote lead for Republicans in Arizona may have put the state—and its 11 electoral votes—out of reach for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats. As of Monday, Republicans expanded their lead to nearly 200,000 ballots cast.
In total, 954,306 Arizona Republicans have voted early—equating to nearly 41 percent of the pre-Election Day electorate. Meanwhile, 758,342 Democrats have voted early, making up 32.4 percent of the pre-election turnout. Independents sit at 625,731 ballots cast, with 26.8 percent of the total.
During the 2020 election, Joe Biden defeated President Donald J. Trump in Arizona by a narrow margin of just 10,457 votes. Barring a historic number of Republican to Democrat-cross-over voters or an unpreceded Election Day “blue wave,” the early vote lead suggests that Arizona has moved into the Trump column.
The early vote advantage may also bode well for Arizona’s Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Kari Lake. While most public polling has shown Lake trailing Trump’s numbers in the state, a significant margin of victory for the Republican presidential nominee could pull her across the finish line. Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) has led Lake in most voter surveys—though the race appears to have significantly tightened in the final weeks before the election.
While most polling showed Trump with a slight lead over Harris in the critical battleground state, the 2024 Republican presidential nominee cracked 50 percent for the first time in mid-October. That survey, conducted by YouGov, gave credence to speculation that momentum in Arizona had swung Trump’s way.
The strong Republican showing in Arizona should also concern Democrats regarding their abortion rights messaging strategy. Earlier this year, the Democrats rolled out a seven-figure ad buy—which included billboards in Tempe and Phoenix—pushing the abortion issue. Despite the insistence of party strategists, the move appears to have not moved the electorate in Harris’s favor.