❓WHAT HAPPENED: Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s, believes high price levels are likely to persist even after hostilities with Iran end.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, investors, and the U.S. economy.
📍WHEN & WHERE: Comments made in March and April 2026.
💬KEY QUOTE: “I don’t think we’re going back to the pre-war prices for the foreseeable future. Certainly won’t be this year, won’t even be next year. Might not be ever.” – Mark Zandi
🎯IMPACT: The prediction suggests long-term elevated prices, with the possibility of a recession later this year.
Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s, says he believes high price levels are likely to persist even after hostilities with Iran end. In addition, Zandi has warned that the stock market is becoming increasingly detached from the American economy, which he thinks could be causing many to underestimate the odds of a recession.
“I don’t think we’re going back to the pre-war prices for the foreseeable future. Certainly won’t be this year, won’t even be next year,” the Moody’s chief economist said in a recent economic briefing, adding, “Might not be ever.”
In February, Zandi stated that he believes “there are times when I feel markets are overdone and increasingly disconnected from the economy,” suggesting we may be in such a moment.
In late March, economic turbulence and price volatility led Zandi to conclude that a recession is “more than likely by the second half of the year.” These concerns are underpinned by the recent and significant downward revision of jobs shed by the economy in February. While the initial government report indicated 92,000 jobs were lost in February, the most recent revision—issued late last week—shows that 133,000 jobs were actually lost that month.
“Investors are simply investing on the faith that [stock and commodity] prices will rise quickly in the future because they have in the recent past,” Zandi contends. “Markets risk moving in a big way, causality is reversed, and falling asset prices threaten an already vulnerable economy. This is one of those times.”
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