Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has overtaken the Labour Party in national opinion polls again, despite the latter receiving a polling boost from the installation of new Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
| PULSE POINTS |
❓ WHAT HAPPENED: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has re-taken its lead in the national polls despite a brief “Burnham Bounce” for the incumbent Labour Party after former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was replaced by Andy Burnham. 📺 DETAIL: Reform topped a poll conducted by YouGov and released on Tuesday. The populist party polled at 23 percent, one percentage point ahead of Prime Minister Burnham’s Labour. Olukemi “Kemi” Badenoch’s nominally center-right Conservative Party secured 19 percent, followed by Zack Polanski‘s far-left Green Party on 13 percent, and the Liberal Democrats, a progressive liberal party that wants to re-join the European Union (EU), on 12 percent. The Elon Musk-backed Restore Britain party, led by former Reform UK Member of Parliament (MP) Rupert Lowe, polled at just four percent. The poll was conducted between August 2 and 3. 🎯 IMPACT: This poll shows Reform re-taking the lead in the national opinion polls just weeks into Burnham’s premiership. Having stepped away from national politics to serve as Mayor of Greater Manchester from 2017 to 2026, Burnham is unknown to many voters, meaning he has been able to avoid the widespread unpopularity of his predecessor, former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Combined with the expected polling boost new Prime Ministers typically receive upon entering office, Burnham’s personal ratings allowed the governing Labour Party to briefly overtake Reform. However, the fact that the Labour government’s lead had already faded underscores the extent of the public’s dissatisfaction with the Labour government, whoever is leading it. It is also likely that recent bad headlines for the government, such as a spike in illegal migrants crossing the English Channel, a potential “death tax” to fund social care, and a series of policy U-turns from the Prime Minister, have boosted support for Reform. 📺 FLASHBACK: Back in June, Reform hit a three-month high in the polls following the murder and wrongful arrest of 18-year-old white teenager Henry Nowak by a Sikh man who falsely accused him of racism. Reform overtook the governing Labour Party in the national polls around late 2024 to early 2025, representing a massive shift away from Labour and Conservatives, who have dominated British politics for a century. |
🚨 NEW: Reform UK has regained its lead over Labour in the latest YouGov poll
➡️ RFM: 23% (+1)
🔴 LAB: 22% (=)
🔵 CON: 19% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 13% (=)
🟠 LDM: 12% (+1)
🟣 RES: 4% (=)2-3 Aug
Changes w/ 26-27 Jul— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) August 4, 2026
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