A new Deltapoll survey has Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party back down on 20 percent, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 24.
The poll marks the end of a “conference bounce” for Badenoch, and tells the reverse story of this past weekend’s Mail on Sunday splash, which said Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch had “stormed to an eight-point poll lead” over Nigel Farage’s Reform UK — on a survey by Conservative Party donor, former deputy chairman, and peer Lord Ashcroft.
Ashcroft put Labour on 31 percent, the Conservatives on 26, and Reform on 18. But that figure should not be read as if he is measuring the same thing as British Polling Council accredited pollsters. He is not a member of the Council, and Ashcroft does not ask people which party they would pick if there were an election tomorrow. He asks them to score, from 0 to 100, how likely they are to vote for each party at the next election, then counts those whose highest score is at least 50, thus skewing results from normal polling.
As set out at the weekend, that method is not a like-for-like voting-intention reading, and it structurally benefits the old parties: Labour and the Conservatives.
They think you’re stupid, folks. Lord Ashcroft Polls isn’t even British Polling Council accredited. Which is like the BARE minimum. It’s just push polling to make Tory activists feel better. pic.twitter.com/NLxqZB1urZ
— Raheem J. Kassam (@RaheemKassam) November 7, 2026
The Numbers.
Fieldwork for the new tracker ran from November 6 to 9 among 2,023 Great Britain adults, weighted to the British adult population. Labour is on 31 percent, up one from the previous survey, taken October 30 to November 2 among 2,215 adults. Reform is on 24, down one. The Conservatives are on 20, down three. The Liberal Democrats are on 9, up two. The Greens are unchanged at 8, the Scottish National Party at 3, Plaid Cymru — the Welsh nationalists — at 1, and others at 4.
Reform is now four points ahead of the Conservatives. In the last reading, that lead was two points. Labour leads Reform by seven and the Tories by 11.
Lab 31% (+1)
Reform 24% (-1)
Con 20% (-3)
Lib Dem 9% (+2)
Green 8% (=)
New Fieldwork: 6th – 9th November 2026
New Sample: 2,023 GB Adults pic.twitter.com/NV866Wp50O— Deltapoll (@DeltapollUK) November 9, 2026
