IN BRIEF:
❓What Happened: A poll for the Florida Congressional District 6 Special Election reveals a close race between Randy Fine and Josh Weil.
👥 Who’s Involved: Republican candidate Randy Fine and Democratic candidate Josh Weil.
📍 Where & When: Florida’s 6th Congressional District, with a survey conducted on March 22.
💬 Key Quote: “Fine will have to make up the difference with those who vote between now and the close of polls.”
⚠️ Impact: The election could swing either way due to the poll’s margin of error, and potential voter turnout could influence the outcome significantly.
IN FULL:
Republican Randy Fine appears to have a slight advantage over Democrat Josh Weil in the upcoming Special Election for Florida’s 6th Congressional District seat, a survey by St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics shows. Conducted on March 22, the survey of 403 likely voters shows Fine with just over 48 percent of the vote, with Weil closely trailing at around 44 percent. However, Fine’s edge falls within the 4.9 percent margin of error, suggesting an uncertain outcome.
Despite the district’s Republican-leaning history, the race remains competitive. About 38 percent of the electorate has already voted, and early returns show Weil leading among this group, capturing 51 percent compared to Fine’s 43 percent. Fine’s success hinges on securing sufficient votes from those yet to cast ballots by the time polls close at 7 PM on election day.
Financially, Weil holds a significant fundraising advantage, with $1.3 million in cash reserves compared to Fine’s $93,000 as of March 12.
While President Donald J. Trump achieved a decisive victory in the district last November, and former Congressman Mike Waltz (R-FL) secured 66.5 percent of votes during his last election, the poll indicates voter approval of Trump in the district is slightly less robust, with under 51 percent expressing approval. Notably, Waltz—currently embroiled in a controversy surrounding the use of the Signal messaging app for sensitive government communications—is likely impacting the race. The Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg appears to have been inadvertently added to a Signal chat, including numerous high-level White House officials involved in the planning of military strikes on the Houthi terrorists in Yemen.
Interestingly, voters who do not affiliate with either major party are largely backing Weil, with 57 percent supporting him and only 34 percent supporting Fine. The break of undecided voters for Weil means Fine will need to make up the difference with a surge of election-day voting by Republicans. Whether that materializes remains to be seen.
Republicans retaining the Congressional seat is considered critical to their House majority. The party’s tenuous hold on the House of Representatives has already led to President Trump having to pull the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) as potentially losing her seat could result in the Republicans losing the House majority altogether should they also lose several other upcoming special elections.
