Another poll has indicated that National Rally (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen is on track to beat all her rivals in the first and second rounds of France’s presidential elections in 2027.
| PULSE POINTS |
❓ WHAT HAPPENED: Another poll has predicted that National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen will defeat all her major rivals in France’s presidential elections next year. 📺 DETAIL: The poll was conducted by Elabe, a French polling firm, and commissioned by BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, a French broadcaster and Sunday newspaper. The poll showed Le Pen defeating so-called centrist candidates Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent and 57 percent to 43 percent, respectively. The poll also shows Le Pen defeating left-leaning Raphaël Glucksmann 57 percent to 43 percent. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate, is predicted to lose to Le Pen 69.5 percent to 30.5 percent. Notably, France uses a two-round system for its presidential elections. All candidates are permitted to stand in the first round, but if no candidate wins an outright majority of the votes cast, the two most popular candidates proceed to a second run-off round. The poll showed that Le Pen is leading in first round polling with 34 percent to 35.5 percent of the vote. Philippe is her closest competitor, on a distant 17 percent of the vote. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is predicted to secure 14 percent to 14.5 percent in the first round, while Glucksmann is on track to get between 11.5 percent and 14 percent of the vote. 🎯 IMPACT: This polling suggests that the “front républicain” strategy of establishment and leftist parties backing each other to block the National Rally from winning will not work in 2027. If the poll’s findings are reflected in the elections, it will be the National Rally’s first-ever presidential victory. This would mark a significant shift in the French political landscape, away from establishment parties and candidates and towards populist and eurosceptic outsiders. 📺 FLASHBACK: This is not the first poll to put Le Pen ahead of her rivals. Back in July, a poll conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) revealed that Marine Le Pen would win both rounds. Specifically, Le Pen was predicted to beat Attal, a protege of outgoing President Emmanuel Macron, by 54 percent to 46 percent, and Philippe by 55 percent to 45 percent. The same poll had Le Pen beating Mélenchon by 70 percent to 30 percent. In August, Toluna-Harris, a market research firm, also predicted that Le Pen would defeat Jean-Luc Mélenchon (68 percent versus 32 percent), Philippe (55 percent versus 45 percent), and Attal (57 percent versus 43 percent). |
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