Cumulative revisions to monthly jobs reports from January through November 2023 suggest that at least 443,000 fewer jobs were created in Joe Biden’s economy than the public was initially told.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BSL) publishes monthly job reports. Its figures often show job creation has been “surprisingly” high, with Biden’s economy stronger on paper than expected, given “hardship withdrawals” are rising and polls show most Americans feel the country is not performing well.
However, revisions to BSL job estimates over the course of the year indicate that people are not wrong to feel a disconnect between the numbers and their lived experiences. Revisions were downwards in 10 months out of the 11 for which revised estimates are available. The revisions are not small, either.
In June, the new jobs estimate was cut almost in half, dropping from 209,000 to 105,000. September, February, and May also saw big cuts of 74,000, 63,000, and 58,000, respectively.
Revisions for December 2023 were unknown as of the time of publication, but analysts say the prognosis is bleak.
Economist Dr. E.J. Antoni believes the current figures point towards “the economy shedding 1.5 million full-time jobs in a single month, big downward revisions” and a “true unemployment rate between 6.4 percent and 7.5 percent.”
Antoni also noted that government jobs accounted for roughly a quarter of all job gains in December, explaining that “this is highly problematic [because] you need many private sector jobs to support each [government] job via tax revenue,” far above the ratio that currently exists.
Dec jobs report 🧵: there's SO much bad news under the hood of this report, including the economy shedding 1.5 million full-time jobs in a single month, big downward revisions, and a true unemployment rate between 6.4% and 7.5% – here's the truth you should know… pic.twitter.com/z1BU4irJea
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) January 5, 2024
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