A pair of New York state polls shows President Donald J. Trump within 10 points of Joe Biden in the Empire State, and as close as within seven points once Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included. RFK Jr., now running as an independent, will face hurdles getting on the ballot. But if he makes it, President Trump’s upward trajectory and President Biden’s bleeding out with black men, Hispanics, and young voters portends an emerging, anti-globalist coalition.

The contemporary iteration we know as national populism, ‘MAGA’, Trumpism, or ‘America First’, is still in its early development. If the trends we’ve seen this cycle continue, it could emerge as a reverse FDR-New Deal coalition, with rural and small-town America providing the base, and urban America providing the role that the rural U.S. did for Roosevelt.

Trump Ploughs The Road The GOP Still Fails to Follow.

Urban America bottomed out in its Republican support when Mitt Romney ran for President. Romney won just 23 percent of the urban vote. However, that proved to be the high water mark for an Obama-Clinton coalition expected to be firmly in the lead by now.

Eight years later, Trump received 32 percent of the urban vote, a nine percent improvement. If that trends up another nine percent to 41, not only is New York in play, but so are many others. Margins matter, and votes are worth earning wherever they exist. This is something the 45th President, in his competitive instincts, has always understood.

Unfortunately, the most significant upset in American presidential history since Truman in ‘48 was not followed up by a comprehensive reorganization of the Republican Party around Trump-style populism. Much of the GOP establishment ran away from him in 2016, and has been content retaining their invites to Cafe Milano ever since. This was a profound mistake.

It has delayed the potential of a realignment-style coalition that could move America off of its 50-50 stalemate, with each party basically content on winning contests with long, last-second field goals. Ever a football fan like Nixon before him, Trump understands that you compete everywhere, limited only by time and logistics.

Realistic Expectations.

This is not to say the Trump re-election campaign should target, nor throw a bunch of money at New York. After all, if that money flowed into the state party coffers and moribund title holders, it would certainly be wasted. Trump will handily win the state primary next year, especially given its position on the calendar. But while New York should not be a key focus, that doesn’t mean a place with such a positive direction of public political travel should be ignored, either.

Short of winning, there are several moral victories to be had through what would be a youth-led effort by political groups across the state that could be instrumental in promoting the MAGA message and running up the score in upstate New York, which is actually historically one of the most consistently Republican-voting parts of the country. The multiple pickups in the 2022 midterms, which proved to be crucial to the final House margin, highlight the opportunity.

The other critical parts of a winning coalition, the city and Long Island, have also been trending Republican with few exceptions in the last half-decade. Since 2017, the Republican delegation in the New York City Council has doubled, and there is now an elected Republican in four of the city’s five boroughs after a seat flipped in the Bronx this election for the first time in four decades.

A Rally in New York?

Alongside building ground game with grassroots energy, Trump could do a rally or two in order to repeat some recent political upsets. Recall the last-minute 2016 rallies in Michigan and Minnesota – mocked at the time by the chorus of court jesters in the media. A few days later, Michigan voted Republican at the presidential level for the first time since 1988, and Minnesota got within a percent and a half of doing so for the first time since 1972.

This presidential candidate has expanded the electoral map and confounded expert opinions. By the home stretch next fall, New York will be undefended political ground that could be worked into a day’s schedule which could include the nearby battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire. Such an effort would be the party-building exercise the state needs, and provide an essential symbolic triumph over the progressive politicians that have been on a witch hunt to destroy a democratically-elected president ever since he came down the escalator in Manhattan eight years ago.

Gavin M. Wax is a New York-based conservative political activist, commentator, columnist, operative, and strategist. He is the Executive Director of the National Constitutional Law Union. He also serves as the 76th President of the New York Young Republican Club and as an Ambassador for both Turning Point USA & Live Action. He is co-authoring an upcoming book entitled ‘The Emerging Populist Majority.’ You can follow him on Twitter at @GavinWax

Troy M. Olson is an Army Veteran, a lawyer by training, and the co-author (with Gavin Wax) of the upcoming book ‘The Emerging Populist Majority.’ He is the Sergeant-at-Arms of the New York Young Republican Club and co-founder of the Veterans Caucus. He lives in New York City with his wife and son. Follow him on Twitter and Substack at @TroyMOlson.