Signum Global Advisors — a research firm specializing in analytics and institutional investor and corporate advisory — says President Joe Biden will likely win re-election in November. The firm gives Biden a 65 percent chance of returning to the White House, breaking with recent predictions by major institutional investors like Jamie Dimon, David Rubenstein, and Scott Bessent, who have indicated former President Trump holds an electoral edge.
“At this stage in the U.S. presidential race, more data points a priori seem to favor former President Donald Trump over current President Joe Biden,” a research team led by Rob Casey, a senior analyst for Signum Global, argues. They add: “Adjusted for what we view as the determining factor in this election — voter mobilization — however, our current base case expectation is a Biden victory (65 [percent]), coupled with a divided Congress (Republican-majority Senate, Democrat-majority House).”
MOBILIZATION.
Biden’s victory, according to the research firm, is premised on their belief in the likelihood that Democrat voter turnout will be high — driven in part by numerous state referendums on abortion and the Democrat Party’s framing of the 2024 election as pivotal to the future of American democracy. Signum Global also downplays the impact of immigration on the 2024 election, claiming their analysis indicates only 17 percent of voters say the issue impacts them directly. The Signum Global research team also said it believes the U.S. will not experience an economic recession in 2024, noting: “Since 1944, no incumbent president running for re-election has lost without a recession during or immediately preceding the election cycle.”
DEMOCRAT DONOR.
While Signum Global’s analysis shouldn’t be brushed aside by Republicans — the issue of abortion arguably turned the tide nearly in favor of Democrats during the 2022 mid-terms — the firm isn’t without its own political bias. Charles Myers, the founder of Signum Global Advisors, is a Democrat mega-donor. Since the beginning of the 2023-2024 election cycle, FEC data indicates Myers has contributed nearly $250,000 to Democrat candidates and aligned PACs. He has made the legal maximum contribution to several national Democrat leaders, including Eric Swalwell, Nancy Pelosi, Elissa Slotkin, and Adam Schiff.
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