PULSE POINTS:
❓What Happened: Polling reveals ‘mid-propensity voters’ (MPVs) who supported Trump in 2024 may not turn out for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.
👥 Who’s Involved: J.L. Partners conducted the polling; President Donald Trump; mid-propensity voters; Republican strategists.
📍 Where & When: United States, polling conducted in April and May 2025.
💬 Key Quote: “If you are a Republican operative, the best way to get the message across is to make these elections about putting the GOP in the best position to carry the agenda that Trump has championed forward into years to come,” said James Johnson, Co-Founder of J.L. Partners.
⚠️ Impact: Republicans face a challenge in motivating a key voter bloc that is vital for maintaining congressional majorities and advancing the MAGA agenda.
IN FULL:
A newly released analysis from J.L. Partners highlights concerns for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections, as a critical group of ‘mid-propensity voters’ (MPVs) who supported President Donald J. Trump in 2024 appear less motivated to vote in 2026.
The analysis defines MPVs as voters who supported Trump but rank their likelihood of voting in midterm elections between four and seven out of 10. These voters, who comprise 20 percent of the electorate, are predominantly younger (aged 18-29) and disproportionately black. Despite their support for Trump in 2024, many are politically unaligned, with 42 percent identifying as Independent or unaffiliated.
In the 2024 election, 36 percent of MPVs backed Trump, compared to 32 percent for former Vice President Kamala Harris, while 29 percent did not vote at all. According to J.L. Partners, the most compelling argument for these voters to participate in the midterms is ensuring Republican congressional majorities to advance the Trump platform and position the party for the 2028 presidential race.
James Johnson, Co-Founder of J.L. Partners, explained, “It might seem odd, but it is intuitive when you think about it… they are thinking through a presidential election prism.” Johnson emphasized the importance of framing the midterms as a continuation of the Trump agenda, stating, “If you are a Republican operative, the best way to get the message across is to make these elections about putting the GOP in the best position to carry the agenda that Trump has championed forward into years to come.”
Republicans face historical challenges in maintaining voter enthusiasm during midterms, when opposition parties typically gain momentum. Trump’s team is reportedly preparing for potential Democratic efforts to impeach him if they regain the House majority.
John McLaughlin, Trump’s longtime pollster, stressed the urgency of delivering on campaign promises, including tax cuts, to maintain voter support. “We need to pass the tax cuts and avoid a recession,” McLaughlin said. “That’s the high stakes here. We cannot lose the midterms.”