The Elon Musk-backed Restore Britain party suffered another humiliating electoral defeat last Thursday, securing just 692 votes of 27,211 cast in the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. Analysis suggests Rupert Lowe’s insurgent political party is increasingly likely to serve as a spoiler for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, helping only to usher in a far-left alliance of the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party.

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The official results show Restore’s candidate, Tyler Johnson, finishing sixth with approximately 2.5 percent of the vote, trailing even the Liberal Democrats and securing fewer than half the votes won by Reform.

Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali won the left-dominated constituency, previously represented by former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with 12,292 votes, followed by Green Party leader Zack Polanski on 8,928.

The result represents yet another embarrassment for Lowe’s party, which has benefited from considerable social media attention, particularly from billionaire X owner Elon Musk, but it has struggled to translate its online exposure into votes.

The party dedicated significant resources to the race, hosting almost daily “action days,” and distributing tens of thousands of leaflets at great campaign cost. The campaign also saw their activists have physical confrontations with far-left agitators who attempted to disrupt the democratic process.

A Growing Record of Electoral Failures.

The London humiliation follows Restore’s disappointing performance in the June parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, where Labour’s Andy Burnham defeated Reform candidate Rob Kenyon by 24,927 votes to 15,696. Restore’s Rebecca Lee Shepherd finished a distant third, collecting just 3,111 votes.

Before the contest, data revealed that Restore could split the anti-establishment vote, as polling placed Labour on 45 percent, Reform on 40 percent, and Restore on approximately eight percent. Although Burnham ultimately won by a margin substantially larger than Restore’s entire vote, the result demonstrated the party’s ability to attract thousands of right-wing voters without seriously threatening to win the constituency itself.

Restore also failed to make a breakthrough in July’s Greater Manchester mayoral election, where it attracted approximately 8.7 percent of the vote and finished fourth.

Restore’s parliamentary results remain nil, aside from Lowe’s own seat, which he won as a Reform candidate. The danger for Reform is not that Lowe will defeat Farage nationally, but that even modest Restore support could make the difference between victory and defeat in marginal seats.

Origins.

Restore Britain traces its origins to a feud between Lowe and Reform UK.

The former MEP and loathed Southampton FC owner is alleged to have made violent threats towards Zia Yusuf, the party’s shadow home secretary. Shortly after, Lowe briefed establishment news reporters against Farage, stating: “We have to change from being a protest party led by the Messiah.”

At this point in time, March 2025, Reform UK was polling neck-and-neck with the Labour Party. Lowe’s actions since have helped contribute to a decline in Reform’s fortunes, and an uptick for the left-wing Labour Party.

He then established his own political movement in June 2025, eventually transforming it into a registered political party in February 2026.

Restore has faced questions about its political direction and personnel. Restore spokesman Charlie Downes described the organization as an enemy of populism, raising questions about its relationship with the wider anti-establishment movement. Restore claims to represent a more uncompromising alternative to Britain’s political establishment, yet its electoral interventions may make it easier for establishment parties to retain power.

Elon Musk.

One of Restore’s most significant political assets has been the public support of Elon Musk, whose relationship with Farage deteriorated dramatically after the billionaire began criticizing the Reform leader’s suitability to lead Britain’s populist-right movement.

Musk has repeatedly promoted Lowe on X, publicly praised his political positions, and amplified Restore’s messaging to his enormous online audience. Lowe, as a result, has been forced to declare over £100,000 in X payments.

Musk’s political influence and financial resources could theoretically heavily influence Restore’s prospects, but neither his endorsements nor the party’s existing funding have yet produced any sort of parliamentary breakthrough. Instead, the billionaire’s preferred alternative to Farage appears increasingly capable of dividing Britain’s right-wing electorate without building a viable governing coalition of its own.

Restore Could Cost Reform 77 Seats.

The potential consequences of this division were examined in a September 24 National Pulse analysis, which used constituency-level YouGov MRP polling to identify 77 parliamentary seats where Restore’s projected support was at least as large as Reform’s deficit to the projected winner.

Speaking with former British Prime Minister Liz Truss, The National Pulse Editor-in-Chief Raheem Kassam recently warned that Lowe’s party could inflict substantial electoral damage even without winning constituencies itself. “Seventy-seven seats, which is a significant number of parliamentary seats that they would effectively block Reform from winning,” Kassam explained.

The constituencies at risk include working-class communities, traditional Conservative Party strongholds, and former Labour heartlands where Reform has increasingly challenged the establishment parties.

“You’ve got a lot of East of England, a lot of working-class communities, a lot of old tourist towns, fisheries, and then you have some Red Wall seats in there as well,” Kassam said.

“Restore hasn’t really moved from hovering between six and eight percent since they launched,” he observed, arguing that the splinter party appeared to have reached a relatively firm electoral ceiling. “But that’s all they need to be spoilers,” he added.

If just 25 percent of Restore’s projected supporters transferred to Reform, the latter would move ahead in 19 additional constituencies and draw level in another seven on the rounded polling figures. At a 50 percent transfer, Reform would move ahead or draw level in 46 constituencies, rising to 58 at a 75 percent transfer. Transferring the entire Restore vote would put Reform ahead in 58 seats and level in another 19.

These scenarios illustrate the potential consequences of right-wing vote fragmentation under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system. In Heywood and Middleton North, for example, YouGov projected Labour on 31 percent, Reform on 30 percent, and Restore on five percent. Reform would need only one-fifth of Restore’s support to erase Labour’s projected advantage. In Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, Labour’s projected two-point lead over Reform could similarly disappear if just one-quarter of Restore’s eight percent support transferred to Farage’s party.

Kassam also suggested that a substantial portion of Restore’s electorate might eventually be persuaded to back Reform rather than risk another Labour or Conservative victory. “It can be done,” he told Truss, arguing that some Restore supporters were former Reform voters while others might be persuaded by the prospect of preventing an establishment victory.

Restoring Britain, or Saving the Establishment?

Restore Britain’s central electoral problem is becoming more and more apparent. The party has attracted major publicity, the richest man on Earth as a supporter, and its leader sits in Parliament, but its results suggest it is lacking the ability to go any further than a single MP elected on a Reform ticket.

Meanwhile, the potential consequences of its continued participation in competitive races could have a much larger effect on the outcome of the next general election. Farage’s Reform UK is attempting to displace Britain’s established political parties. Lowe’s “Restore Britain,” by contrast, risks dividing the very electorate that could make such a major realignment possible.

For all its promises to restore Britain, Musk’s preferred political project may ultimately be remembered less for the seats it won than for the seats it prevented Reform from winning.

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A Reform UK party government under Nigel Farage will face an immediate attempt by the permanent bureaucracy to nullify the election result, and it must have the legal powers to fire participants ready before hospitals and police stations empty, The National Pulse Editor-in-Chief Raheem Kassam has warned.

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Speaking to former Prime Minister Liz Truss, Kassam said the scale of the bureaucracy’s reaction will depend on the size of any parliamentary majority. With a large enough bloc to pass legislation comfortably, a Farage government could move at once. Without one, he warned, the apparatus of state simply waits the elected officials out. “I imagine that, day one, you’re going to get sort of a mass slowdown or general strike” in the National Health Service (NHS) and other government entities, he said. “If Reform wins, you need to have legislation passed immediately that says if you participate in these sorts of things, you lose your jobs.”

Hospitals and police stations cannot be left understaffed, he argued, because civil servants have decided to make a political point after the public has already voted. The threat of dismissal would make many think twice. A minority government or a confidence-and-supply arrangement would be far harder to explain to voters, and Kassam has not ruled out Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives cutting a deal with Labour specifically to keep Reform away from the levers.

Kassam rejected the usual label for the permanent bureaucracy as “the Blob,” calling it “cartoonish.” Instead, he argued it should be called “the regime,” or something like “the Deep State,” as is now commonly used in America.

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Part of the legal foundation for the deep state, Kassam and Truss agreed, is the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010. It placed civil servants under a code interpreted by other civil servants, made government ministers unable to fire them, and allowed officials to withhold information from the Prime Minister on the grounds that they were legally obliged not to share it. Kassam’s answer is that the Act has to be repealed on day one, with Parliament sitting continuously if required, as Farage has vowed, in the same spirit as the early Trump executive order blitz. Talking about anything else, he said, “is for the birds.”

He highlighted the American experience with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a warning rather than a model. Operatives in the U.S. reported getting nowhere near half of what they intended, he observed, because the permanent state slowed, litigated, and applied external pressure until the effort shrank. A Farage government that has not already written a strike-and-dismissal statute and committed to tearing out the Tony Blair-era insulation around the Civil Service, the Bank of England, and the quasi-governmental agencies, will discover the same limits on the morning after its elections.

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A British Green Party campaign coordinator admitted this week that mosques coordinate their parishioners’ votes, despite British regulations stating that, as registered charitable organizations, they must remain politically impartial. Asma Alam, campaign coordinator for Green Party Member of Parliament (MP) Hannah Spencer, stated that mosques had secretly switched to Spencer because they had become dissatisfied with the ruling Labor Party failing to cater to them enough.

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“Talking about mosque endorsements, it’s actually really, really hard; in fact, it’s impossible because they all have got charitable status, and with that charitable status, it means that they can’t endorse a political party. So they can do it under cover, which happened with me,” Asma told an audience at an event last Friday.

Her comments not only show the willingness of mosques to violate election law but the growing influence of the Islamic bloc vote in Britain, where mosques can sway their members to vote as a singular entity in elections, a phenomenon that is occurring all over the Western world.

Britain’s Increasingly Powerful Muslim Vote.

Many Muslims have traditionally voted for the leftist Labour Party for a variety of reasons, including Labour’s permissive stance on immigration and socialistic policies on welfare benefits, as Muslims tend to have a much higher unemployment rate on average. Many Muslims still vote for Labour in Britain and provide the party with many prominent Muslim politicians, such as London Mayor Sadiq Khan, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and former Scottish Labour Party leader Anas Sarwar, now Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s Minister of State for Trade in the House of Lords.

There have been ruptures in Labour’s historic relationship with the Muslim community in Britain, which now makes up around six percent of the population overall but is often concentrated in areas of major cities like London, Birmingham, and others, where the Muslim bloc can sway elections for local Members of Parliament. In Birmingham alone, Muslims make up around 30 percent of the population, nearly one in every three people, with the numbers increasing rapidly.

Israel’s war in Gaza and Labour’s response to it led many Muslims to support independent Muslim candidates and the Greens in the last election in  2024, with four independent MPs winning seats on an explicitly pro-Palestinian platform.

Some Muslim politicians have also been caught engaging in fraud. In 2015, Tower Hamlets Mayor Lutfur Rahman was found guilty in Election Court of corrupt and illegal practices that voided his 2014 election victory. Rahman had used his Muslim faith to garner votes and flouted election rules on the day of the vote. Despite this, Rahman was allowed to run again and became Tower Hamlets’ Mayor for a third term earlier this year.

Continental Europe May Be Even Worse.

France, which has one of the largest Muslim populations in the Western world, at around ten percent, also sees the same trend of Muslims voting as blocs for left-wing parties. For the Muslims in France, far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his France Unbowed party tend to be the most popular choice, with some terming the movement “Islamo-Leftism.” Mélenchon captured around 69 percent of the Muslim vote in the first round of the 2022 presidential elections and 58 percent in the 2024 European elections after denouncing Israel’s war in Gaza.

Political Islam is such a major issue in France that President Emmanuel Macron addressed it in 2021 by creating a “charter of principles” to combat sectarianism and radicalism, which have both been blamed for the wave of terror attacks in the country that have been ongoing over the last decade or so.

In Italy, a mosque outside Milan was caught explicitly telling its members to vote for left-wing parties in a bulletin in 2018. The reason was that the left supported birthright citizenship, which would allow Muslim migrants to easily stay in the country if they had “anchor babies” who were automatically given Italian citizenship.

The Bloc that Mass Migration Built.

Muslim influence in elections across the West, including in American cities like Dearborn, Michigan, and in parts of Texas, is likely to increase due to the mass migration policies that allowed it to emerge in the first place. The question for much of the West in the coming years will not be whether or not the Muslim voting bloc exists and is coordinated, but who is taking its votes and at what cost.

Seeking religious endorsements risks fuelling sectarian politics. It is dangerous and divisive.

As charities, mosques must not endorse political parties or candidates. So why did the Green Party knowingly join an attempt to circumvent these rules?
More👇https://t.co/XqmXwL2pkM pic.twitter.com/erHTUU8STY

— National Secular Society (@NatSecSoc) October 7, 2026

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Image by Don Sniegowski.

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Tory leader Kemi Badenoch closed the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, England, by scolding Reform UK supporters who treat Englishness as an ethnic as well as a civic identity. The politician she had in mind was Reform lawmaker Suella Braverman, who has said she regards herself as British Indian rather than English, and believes that English people with deep ancestral roots in their country do have a particular identity. The Conservative leader, with the endorsement of Hope Not Hate activist Dan Hodges, railed that she does not want Britain to be “run by people who… debate whether my mixed-race children are English.”

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However, not only is this debate not actually occurring within Reform, but she has previously been aggressively assertive in declaring her own ethnic identity as a Yoruba woman, and as a Nigerian when she was attempting to win Nigerian votes.

Rules for Thee.

Badenoch told her audience, “Reform MPs are openly questioning people’s identity. They are not like us. We are not like them. We are different. We are the Conservative Party.” She added, “I don’t know whether you’ve noticed, but I am black. I am British. I’m proud of my country, I’m proud of our history.”

Braverman, who was born and raised in England by Indian parents, has said she does not regard herself as English, because “Englishness is an ethnicity. There have been English people for centuries, and we need to recognize this more if we are to start taking a more muscular approach to citizenship and nationality. And no, it’s not racist to say this.”

Badenoch, meanwhile, was born in England to a Nigerian mother who traveled to the country just to give birth to her and was taken back to Nigeria shortly afterward, and, despite her conference rhetoric against ethnic identity, she has expressed herself in similar but much harsher terms than Braverman in the past.

In December 2024, she told The Spectator she was tired of being filed as Nigerian, saying, “I identify less with the country than with the specific ethnicity [Yoruba]. That’s what I really am. I have nothing in common with the people from the north of the country… those were our ethnic enemies, and yet you end up being lumped in with those people.”

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Opportunistic Identity.

While Badenoch said she had a “very strong identity” as ethnically Yoruba and appeared to reject a broader Nigerian identity, she has also identified as Nigerian when it suits her. On April 16, 2010, standing for election as Kemi Adegoke, she sent supporters a letter headed “Kemi Adegoke for parliament.”

“This year, things are a lot tougher as the party has dropped nationally in the polls. I need your help!” she pleaded. “Nigerians have been fantastic. My immediate circle of friends, ex-school mates, their friends and all our families have really rallied round and have been supportive.”

Ironically, the same letter complained that a BBC caller had insulted her “because I’m Yoruba,” asking readers to back her as a Nigerian. “Like you, I am sick and tired of reading that Nigerians are fraudsters, terrorists, bombing airplanes or slaughtering each other in places like Jos… So I am asking for your help now to support a Nigerian who is trying to improve our national image and do something great here.”

If elected, she wrote, she would speak out against people “cheating and robbing Nigeria and who seek refuge for themselves or their money in the UK,” and publicise “genuine grassroots initiatives such as #lightupNigeria.” She promised updates on her campaign via a “Nigerians for Kemi” list.

Have you seen this before???

When Kemi Badenoch speaks to other Nigerians, she turns off her fake English accent.

She also tells them that she loves Nigeria just as much as England.

And what’s all this about saying Islamic prayers in Nigeria?

She is running to be PM while… pic.twitter.com/thVCrPxblk

— Raheem J. Kassam (@RaheemKassam) September 24, 2026

The ‘Golden Ticket.’

Badenoch was among the last to get British citizenship simply as a result of being born on British soil to a foreign national. The British Nationality Act 1981, implemented on January 1, 1983, ended American-style birthright citizenship. Now, a child born in Britain is British if at least one parent is British or settled in Britain. Badenoch has said that finding she held British citizenship was like finding “a Golden Ticket.”

While for liberals like Dan Hodges her denial of an English ethnic identity was a powerful statement against racism, for many right-leaning voters who have turned away from the Conservatives, it is further proof of the party’s turn towards elite, liberal opinion, as well as its hypocrisy, given that Badenoch believes she and other minorities are entitled to an ethnic identity on top of British ones which, for the white population, must remain strictly civic.

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British Conservative Party leader Olukemi “Kemi” Badenoch has claimed that the post-Brexit surge in migration enabled by her party, known as the Boriswave, occurred because government ministers and civil servants simply “didn’t notice” it was happening. However, the Conservatives intentionally loosened immigration controls prior to the Boriswave, with Badenoch personally lobbying to remove certain limits.

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Impossible to Miss.

Speaking at the Conservative Party’s annual conference in Birmingham, England, where she was backed by Labour and Hope Not Hate activist Dan Hodges, Badenoch said previous Conservative governments had “promised to lower immigration” and “wanted to lower immigration,” despite the fact that it almost tripled from their entry into government in 2010 to its peak in 2023. The problem, she claimed, was distraction: “There were so many other things that people were looking at and focusing on that actually as the numbers increased, ministers didn’t notice, civil servants didn’t notice until well after huge numbers had come into our country.”

She added that Whitehall and ministers needed to concentrate on “the key items, not every single thing that people may want intervention for.”

However, the claim that the borders were opened accidentally sits awkwardly against the public record of the Conservatives’ deliberate policy choices. Successive Conservative governments cut salary, language, and skills thresholds, abolished a resident labor market test, and opened new visa routes, including expanded health and care pathways and post-study work options. Large visa volumes followed. Between 2021 and 2024, roughly 4.2 million people entered Britain on visas or protection routes. Home Office data showed a record 1.47 million visas issued in the year to March 2023 for work, study, family, or resettlement schemes, and about 1.4 million residence visas granted in calendar year 2022.

Net immigration hit successive peaks well above the Conservatives’ 2019 manifesto pledge to bring overall numbers down, and its 2010, 2015, and 2017 promises to reduce net immigration “from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s assessment of the Conservative leader’s claim was blunt: “Kemi Badenoch says the Conservatives let 4 million people into Britain in 4 years because ‘ministers didn’t notice,’” he wrote. “21 of the 27 people in her Shadow Cabinet were those ministers. Her entire team is incompetent and can’t be trusted.”

Kemi Badenoch says the Conservatives let 4 million people into Britain in 4 years because “ministers didn’t notice.”

21 of the 27 people in her Shadow Cabinet were those ministers.

Her entire team is incompetent and can't be trusted. pic.twitter.com/ntRycZhLqX

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) October 6, 2026

Kemi Was Complicit.

Badenoch was an active participant in dismantling immigration restrictions. On December 19th, 2018, as a Conservative MP and party vice chairwoman, she welcomed then-Home Secretary Sajid Javid’s immigration white paper loosening controls in the House of Commons. “As a first-generation immigrant, I welcome the Home Secretary’s statement,” she said. “I feel that the white paper represents a move from the 20th century to a much better future immigration system. I especially thank the Home Secretary for removing the annual limits on work visas and on international students: I lobbied for both on behalf of the Wellcome Sanger Institute and Anglia Ruskin University, which serve my constituency.”

A large share of Badenoch’s current Shadow Cabinet did serve as ministers during the years when visa grants and net migration climbed to record levels. Farage’s count—that 21 of 27 were among those ministers—underscores the continuity. Badenoch herself sat in Cabinet for part of the period. An explanation for Conservative-era mass migration that rests on claims that they “didn’t notice” it was happening asks voters to treat a multi-year policy outcome, visible in quarterly Home Office statistics and repeatedly debated in Parliament, as a mere accident rather than a deliberate breach of election promises.

Kemi Badenoch campaigned to have the annual cap on immigrant work visas lifted.

She claimed it would support businesses. This was 2018, when immigration was already too high and destroying GDP per capita, as well as against the Tory manifesto pledge to lower immigration.

She… https://t.co/XpoVscH1DG pic.twitter.com/QNPS6hq7Wo

— Alex Armstrong (@Alexarmstrong) March 10, 2025

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