Labour Party candidate Andy Burnham is leading the polls in a crunch British parliamentary by-election (special election), with the Elon Musk-backed Restore Britain party likely to siphon enough votes from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party to hand him the victory.
| PULSE POINTS |
❓ WHAT HAPPENED: Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester for Britain’s governing Labour Party, is leading in the polls ahead of a crucial parliamentary by-election (special election) in the Makerfield constituency (electoral district). Burnham’s five-point advantage over Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is likely due to the presence of the Elon Musk-backed Restore Britain party, notionally led by ex-Reform politician Rupert Lowe, drawing votes away from Reform. 📰 DETAIL: The poll, conducted by More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab, shows Labour at 45 percent, Reform UK at 40 percent, and Restore Britain at eight percent. Other parties, such as the formerly governing Conservatives and the far-left Green Party, are polling well below five percent. Notably, Restore Britain recently declared itself “the enemy of populism” in general and of President Donald J. Trump in particular, despite selling itself to voters as a hard-right party. 🎯 IMPACT: Should Burnham win a seat in the House of Commons, he is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour Party’s leadership and, by extension, the office of Prime Minister. He is expected to win such a contest, pulling the party further to the left and canceling planned immigration restrictions. 💬 KEY QUOTE: “Elon Musk’s spite party is tossing the keys to 10 Downing Street to Andy Burnham because Nigel Farage hurt his feelings.” – The National Pulse Editor-in-Chief Raheem Kassam  FLASHBACK: Ahead of the 2024 general election, in which Lowe was returned to Parliament as a Reform candidate, he complained about the notionally right-wing Conservatives standing in his Great Yarmouth constituency and potentially peeling enough votes away from him to let Labour win. “Sad to see these attempts to split the vote and allow a Labour candidate in for Great Yarmouth,” he wrote in a social media post directed at former Conservative politician David Campbell-Bannerman, who was campaigning door to door for the Conservative candidate. “Look at the odds and polling David – the Tories WILL lose. Every leaflet you deliver is a leaflet for the Labour candidate,” Lowe argued. |
TIMES EXCLUSIVE: NEW MAKERFIELD POLL
BURNHAM 45%
REFORM 40%
RESTORE 8%More in Common/UCL Policy Lab, 28 May-12 June, 515 adultshttps://t.co/VGiJpBa4Ab pic.twitter.com/lNkEFk0fTD
— Patrick Maguire (@patrickkmaguire) June 12, 2026
