National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen has topped another poll for next year’s French presidential election, with establishment-backed candidates trailing.
| PULSE POINTS |
❓ WHAT HAPPENED: National Rally (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen is the favourite to win the next French presidential election, according to a new poll. 📺 DETAIL: According to a new poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, a digital market research agency, Le Pen is predicted to secure between 33 percent and 36 percent in the first round, putting her ahead of all her rivals. Significantly, the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon was predicted to reach the second round in three out of five scenarios, and to tie for second place with Édouard Philippe, an establishment “centrist” and former prime minister, in another first-round scenario. The poll was conducted between September 8 and September 10 and was reported on Monday. This follows another poll conducted by Toluna Harris published last month, which showed Le Pen beating Mélenchon (68 percent versus 32 percent), Philippe (55 percent versus 45 percent) and Gabriel Attal, another centrist former Prime Minister (57 percent versus 43 percent) in the second round. The poll also projected Le Pen winning 35 percent of the vote in the first round, well ahead of Mélenchon on 16 percent, Philippe on 14 percent, and Attal on eight percent. 🎯 IMPACT: These figures demonstrate that Le Pen is the clear favourite to win the French presidential election in 2027. If elected, it would be the first time in French history that the National Rally has won a presidential election. Even if polling suggests that he will lose to Le Pen, the fact that the far-left Mélenchon is predicted to reach the second round of voting in three out of five scenarios also shows that support for establishment candidates has waned significantly, while populist candidates on both the right and the left are gaining traction. 📺 FLASHBACK: Earlier this month, a poll conducted by Elabe put Le Pen on track to defeat Philippe (52.5 percent vs 47.5 percent) and Attal (57 percent vs 43 percent). The poll also showed Le Pen beating Mélenchon in the second round (69.5 percent vs 30.5 percent). The Institute for French Public Opinion (IFOP) also released a poll earlier this year which showed Le Pen ahead of all her major opponents, beating Attal (54 percent vs 46 percent), Philippe (55 percent vs 45 percent), and Mélenchon (70 percent vs 30 percent) in the second round. The poll also projected that Le Pen will secure 36 percent of the vote in the first round. |
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