Polling data shows that Marine Le Pen has consolidated her lead in the crowded race for France’s presidential elections next year, amid increasingly violent and widespread riots in the country.
The National Pulse provides you with the data that matters. If you value the work of Raheem J. Kassam and his team, please JOIN THE NATIONAL PULSE or MAKE A DONATION today.
Le Pen Leading.
According to Elabe, a French polling firm, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally (RN) party, leads the field for the 2027 French presidential election, with 32 percent support. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left France Unbowed party, is on 15.5 percent. Former French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, leader of Horizons, an establishment-aligned centrist party, also secured 15.5 percent. Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of the center-left eurofederalist Public Square party, secured comparable support, with 15 percent. This follows Glucksmann’s successful bid to obtain the endorsement of the Socialist Party after running in the party’s primary.
In the same poll, Bruno Retailleau, leader of the establishment-right Republicans, received 6.5 percent support. David Lisnard, Mayor of Cannes, a city on the south-east coast of France, and leader of New Energy, polled at 5.5 percent. Éric Zemmour, whose Reconquest party challenges Le Pen from the right, secured three percent, as did Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of the eurosceptic France Arise party, Marine Tondelier of the eco-socialist Green Party, François Ruffin of the left-wing Stand Up! party, and former French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin of the centrist Humanist France party. Fabien Roussel, leader of the French Communist Party, received 1.5 percent support, while Nathalie Arthaud of the far-left Workers’ Struggle party received one percent.
The poll was conducted between October 14 and October 16 amid ongoing riots in France, but before the significant escalation in violence over recent days, including the burning of Limoges City Hall over the weekend.
Des véhicules de police sont prises pour cible par la foule dans le secteur République à Paris.#Paris #17octobre pic.twitter.com/yMReav1Tie
— Luc Auffret (@LucAuffret) October 17, 2026
The National Pulse does not rely on government or corporate cash, so we need your support. Please JOIN THE NATIONAL PULSE or MAKE A DONATION today.
Past and Future Trends.
The French presidential system uses a two-round system. In the first round, all candidates from all parties are allowed to run. If no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, the two most popular candidates are advanced to the second round in a head-to-head.
According to multiple polls throughout the year, Le Pen is projected to win the first round, but not secure over 50 percent of the vote outright. However, she is also projected to win the second round, regardless of who she is up against. As such, there is a lively race for second place in the first round. Mélenchon is considered the most likely candidate to advance to the second round, even though data suggest he would be rejected in a landslide. If the National Rally leader faces off against Philippe, data indicates that her margin of victory would be narrower but still decisive. Glucksmann’s nomination by former President François Hollande’s party has given him the boost needed to become a contender for second place, although it is not clear that he would fare much better against Le Pen, who has currently managed to extend a 16-point lead over her closest rivals.
However, while fragmentation between the center, center-left, and far-left helps Le Pen’s odds of securing the presidency, it is reasonable to assume that the ongoing riots in France will boost support for the National Rally, with many French voters likely seeking a candidate who will restore law and order. This is especially true since the venerated 143-year-old Limoges City Hall in central France was set ablaze by protestors.
Emmanuel Macron, France’s term-limited incumbent President, remains deeply unpopular with the public.
The National Pulse keeps you updated on the latest news from Europe. If you value the work of Raheem J. Kassam and his team, please JOIN THE NATIONAL PULSE or MAKE A DONATION today. We are 100% reader-funded.
Plusieurs véhicules de nouveau incendiés près de la Place de la République à Paris.
Des feux également dans 3 bâtiments un peu plus tôt.#17octobre #Paris pic.twitter.com/VVJairxf0G
— Luc Auffret (@LucAuffret) October 17, 2026
Join Pulse+ to comment below, and receive exclusive e-mail analyses.




